Wednesday, October 3, 2018

DJIA new all-time high, not S&P500

Market Outlook: Topping Process Underway
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed higher
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close - Trend Candle 
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

No chart update today. Yesterday's chart still applies. Today, the market as measured by the S&P500 made a higher high than the (b) wave of the triangle. That implies we are now in minuet wave v of minute (iii). This is supported by the higher high on the Dow Jones Industrial Average. IF the S&P500 had made a new all-time high, it might strongly suggest the vth wave was over. But such was not the case.

Today, prices "popped, then dropped", but still closed positive. This suggests that sub-minuet wave c may be sub-dividing as micro .i to .v and, if so, the wave should not drop below the (e) wave of yesterday's triangle. The low of the triangle was 2,919 and today intraday low was 2,921; so there is a razor thin margin between the up move continuing and a trend change.

This further sub-division of wave v is an option and does not need to occur. The high could have occurred with a truncation today. A lot depends on the reaction to the employment report on Friday. Let's continue to take it step-by-step and have the patience and flexibility required of the topping process.

Have a very good start to your evening.
TraderJoe

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