Friday, May 18, 2018

R2K New All-Time-High

While the rest of the U.S. equity market is currently quite tepid, the Russell 2000 Futures clawed to a new all-time-high yesterday and again this morning, likely proving their case for the smaller daily triangle. The daily chart is below.

Russell 2000 Futures - Daily - New All Time High

So, the smaller triangle appears to have played out on this index, and met all of the requirements for a triangle. Because yesterday's close was above the high of wave 3, this triangle appears complete, and it does not appear as if a larger or more complicated barrier triangle is in progress on this index. Note that the Elliott Wave Oscillator has a clear triangle signature - shown by the trend lines, and each minute wave of the triangle falls on an opposite side of the EMA-34.

This triangle also does not appear as a "running triangle" with a higher (b) wave. The (b) wave is lower than the end of wave 3. Therefore, this triangle could signal that the final five-wave sequence is dead ahead.

Will the other markets follow suit and make new all-time-highs? That is certainly possible, maybe even likely. But it needs to be monitored closely. One common target for the thrust out of the triangle is to add the 'widest width of the triangle' to the breakout point. In no case should wave ii of 5 travel below the low of wave (e) for the thrust to remain in tact.

Have a good day and a great weekend.
TraderJoe

10 comments:

  1. Thank s for updating. very nice, worth of long time waiting.

    you have very nice weekend

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  2. Thanks Joe. I've been kicking myself for forgetting about your explanation of the smaller triangle. I was staring at the e low as it happened and thought I should wait for the e of the larger triangle. That's what happens when you're a newbie. :) (I've adjusted my strategy having learned from that error) oh well. As always, thank you so much for your explanations!

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    Replies
    1. So far, smaller triangle is only proven for the $RUT, and Russell futures. Larger triangle can still apply in S&P, but either way the pattern is not expected to yet make lower lows than the Feb 2018 low.

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  3. EDT building in the RUT the last two days to end the whole move since 2009?

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  4. Joe , thanks for your expertise. But could the correction in the R2K til end of April be a flat and we had wave 1 up 2 down and now wave 3 up that's still ongoing? Thanks Sam

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  5. Joe -

    First time reader. Thanks for insight. So the next pull back in R2K would be wave 2 and would align with wave e of 4 in SPX. What are your thoughts on the alignment of NDX or COMP given it made a higher high ahead of other indices back in mid March? These two seems to be in a wave b of 4 with a C to come which are generally deep and quick. Asked another way, the pull back would argue for a shallow one in SPX and R2K but a deep one for COMP and I cant reconcile that so looking for your thoughts.

    -TJ

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