Monday, November 6, 2017

Some Resistance at the Highs

Market Outlook: Possibly Topping this Week
Market Indexes: DJIA, S&P500 cash new all-time highs, ES and NQ futures too!
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close - Trend Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

Since I wrote a lot over the weekend, I'll keep this brief and the let the charts speak for themselves.  The market, as measured by the S&P500 Index closed Friday at 2588. At the open, the index dipped two points, then began climbing, eventually making a marginal  new high at 2,593 by 15:30 EST. The cash market is seeing some resistance at the highs and from the parallel channel shown below.

S&P500 Cash Index - Daily - Some Resistance at the Highs

Both cash and futures prices are potentially trading in a wedge shape, shown above, and, as below.

ES E-Mini S&P500 Futures - 4 HR - Potential Wedge

And so, it is possible we are counting a potential contracting diagonal. So far, the trend lines are holding nicely. For a well-formed diagonal, wave (iv) should trade below the blue EMA-34 shown. Of course, wave (iii) must still hold first as a shorter wave than wave (i).

Have a very good start to your night, and to your week!


  1. I’m thinking we see SPX 3000 by next year. We are in a cash rich world with low interest rates and no institutional selling.

    1. Neely's Fifth Extension Terminal that I presented on the weekend would allow that. But there might be a lot of angst in between.

  2. RUT and Transports topped over a month ago! With investor optimisim at records, record margin, 2.5 trillion betting vol stays low, etc. My concern with a 10% selloff is that it can easily turn into a 50% correction due to margin debt/insane leverage. That's why I feel that new highs after the correction/crash is going to be a tough to bet on.