Wednesday, November 8, 2017

Likely B Wave

Market Outlook: Possibly Topping this Week
Market Indexes: NQ futures made a new ATH; not Dow, S&P, RUT or Trans
SPX Candle: Lower High, Higher Low, Higher Close - Inside Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

There are two ways to interpret today. Either the today was the low of wave (iv) of the diagonal we have been showing on the ES 4-hr chart, with a slight truncation, or today's high was b up of (iv) down. The latter interpretation is preferred right now, as new higher highs were not made today.

Here is the cash chart.

S&P500 Daily Cash Index - Wedge

There was downward overlap, and the ES 4-hrs did cross the EMA-34 in whippy action. We'd expect the whippy action inside a diagonal. That's fine. A lower low before a higher high would make a more proportional count, but we must also not forget that there could be a truncation at the high of a significant wave, as well. Time will tell.

The Dow Transports actually continued to make lower daily lows, as below.

Dow Jones Transportation Index - Daily - Lower Lows

For now, have a good start to your evening.

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