Wednesday, November 15, 2017

Another Lower Low Day

Market Outlook: A Top of "Some Degree" appears in Place
Market Indexes: All Major U.S. Equity Indexes were lower
SPX Candle: Lower High, Lower Low, Lower Close - Trend Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

The market as measured by the S&P500 Index closed last night at 2,579. The futures were lower overnight, and the market gapped down ten points to open at 2,569 and continued lower to 2,557 which was fully -20 points lower, validating a count we had started yesterday in the live chat room and referred to in the blog post yesterday. When the market bottomed at that level, a sharp rally was mounted back to the 2,573 level, but not closing the opening gap.

Yesterday, I said I would share with you the downward count we developed in the cash index if it came to fruition. That count is shown in the S&P500 Index Cash Half-Hourly chart below.

S&P500 Cash Index - Half Hour Chart - Downward Count

This morning we got validation of a properly formed expanding diagonal in the downward direction. Wave (5) is just longer than wave (3), Wave (4) is longer than wave (2), but does not cross above wave (2)'s high, wave (4) overlaps wave (1) in the upward direction and they can all be counted as zigzag sequences lower.

By showing you the yellow (5) flag in an even lower location, it should be clear that it is possible that the diagonal continues lower. In order words, the C wave of (5) could sub-divide, with the current C wave location only the first wave of C. Time will tell.

As we indicated, the EMA-34 is currently headed lower. That has been telling. The retrace downward at the end of the day, today, was to the 62% level so a further up leg is possible to near the level of the B wave of (5), if the gap direction tomorrow is up.

So again, either we have a diagonal to the all-time high ending a fifth wave up, and a diagonal downward, starting a down trend, or the upward diagonal is just a (b) wave, and the downward diagonal is the (c) wave of a flat.

The VIX made a higher high today going all the way back to Aug 21, but it's daily slow stochastic is not yet in over-bought territory. And the daily ES E-Mini S&P500 Future today hit it's daily lower Bollinger Band, but it's daily slow stochastic is not over-sold yet, either.

Today we discussed a slightly different count in the ES E-Mini futures (versus cash above), because the futures make their high at a slightly different location. The two counts are currently "compatible" but they are not the same. The advance-decline line, and up / down volume continued to decline.

Right now, I am monitoring the speed of the decline (price points per number of days) to determine it's significance for longer term charts. But, so far, so good.

The daily chart that shows the best possibility for a (b) wave high - instead of a fifth wave top - is the NQ daily index. However, price has traveled low enough today, that it is time - and advisable - to include the invalidation point on the ((iv))th wave of this daily chart. Here is that chart.

NQ Daily - Last Chance for a Non-Overlapping ((iv))th Wave

I have to admit, I am quite disappointed that people are not contributing by commenting on the blog. Further, I see that readership lately is down. If readership was up, and commenting was down, I'd think you were just satisfied with what your are seeing. With both down, it makes me think I should back off considerably  as people are not spreading the word regarding what is here, and neither are they paying significant attention to it either.

Well. Have a good start to your evening. Time for me to relax, too!
TraderJoe

57 comments:

  1. I enjoy reading what is posted however I'm not very good at putting my thoughts in writing. Considering I'm still a young Elliott Wave student I try not water things down and confuse everyone.
    Things do seem to be waiting for new information. I see a case where gold could reverse and move lower as the AO is still below 0 on the daily. Then look over at SPX 4 hr maybe a possible wave 4.
    Anyway I just looked over things for a few have to read in detail later.

    Thanks ET

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    1. You should ask a question for clarification now & again to help your learning.

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  2. Joe, we've not stopped reading, we're just so completely baffled and stunned by this cotton pickin' 4th wave conundrum that we don't have anything intelligent to say. I've been pulling out what few hairs I have left on my head in frustration trying to figure out whether this thing is done and dusted or just cooling its heals getting ready for another romp higher. The big picture here is critical. Keep up the faith. There's a light at the end of this 4th wave tunnel. I just want to know if it's a train coming to run me over. Thanks again for sharing. I try to pay it forward by sharing the results of my non-Elliott trading system at Traders-talk.com.

    Regards,
    Douglas

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    1. Thanks for letting me know, Doug. And good luck with the system.

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  3. I’ve posted comments a couple of times, but have no idea where they are in the cloud. I’ve asked about the chat room a couple times and have not heard anything yet. Could someone direct me to the website where a live chat room happens?

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    1. Adam send me an email (link in the profile) and I will be sure to get you the information.

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  4. anything you post is read every day and greatly appreciated... phil

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  5. Please dont stop. Your analysis is invaluable.

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  6. Hi Joe. I trĂ¥d your posts almost everyday and I truly appreciate your great work.

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  7. Thanks Joe. I read your blog everyday, but I don't usually comment when the market is so choppy because there are too many possible counts. When I see symmetrical chop, then I automatically think corrective, not impulsive. McClellan Osc has been below zero since 10/17,and is approaching oversold levels, yet the market is higher than it was on 10/17. Today got close to the lower BB, and was the first time it's closed below the 20dma since 8/29. After all of that, though, the market has still only declined 1.5% from the top. Lots of other indexes look like they've been in a flat that began on 10/23-10/24. Ultimately, I think the market is just killing time while it waits for tax reform to either pass or fail.

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  8. Ho Joe
    Your contribution is greatly appreciated. Many Thanks
    RK

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  9. No lack of reading by me Joe. Your attention to detail and consistency is uncanny...i think after so many years and so many months of slowly grinding higher, everyone gets tired of seeing the small nuances of the market, but certainly not your work...it is stellar and your time and dedication is not unnoticed sir...Best Regards

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  10. Joe, I really appreciate what you are doing here.
    I stumbled upon your work while searching for Elliott Wave videos on YouTube a while back.
    I find your Glenn Neely comparisons most interesting and informative.
    Your knowledge and expertise of the wave principle is 2nd to none sir.
    I am still in the learning stage (actually the unlearning stage) because where I learned to count waves, every wave count is either 3, 7 or 11 waves.
    Please don't stop blogging

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  11. I am a new EW and enjoy reading your blog daily. I learned a lot from your post. Please do not stop blogging. Thank you for your time and contribution.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Glad you're learning. Keep it up. It's not easy, but patience and dedication will pay off.

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  12. Your posts are always read and greatly appreciated!

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  13. You know and atleast I know you are one of the best in explaining EW nerve by nerve in waves. I am proud to know you

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    1. Thanks Manu. And you're right. It has been 'testy' lately.

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  14. Hi Joe, eagerly await reading your blog every night. The day-to-day analysis is really educational, especially those amongst us who are just learning Elliott wave or trying to perfect it as much as possible. I sincerely hope you continue doing the daily blog as I find this invaluable as I'm sure a lot of other people do.
    I'll get the word out as much as I can and please know that your work is so much appreciated!

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  15. In your NQ chart, price it close to target (bottom of channel) but oscillator has a long way to return close to zero. If price target is hit but oscillator does not, how would you interpret that? Price more important?

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    1. Maybe still in a triangle or diagonal or larger flat, yet.

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  16. Once we have confirmed W3 daily high, how would you judge if it was W1 of LT W5 diagonal? Below the 38.2 retrace?

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  17. Thank you for your daily analysis of the S&P 500 index. I find your analysis to be objective and straightforward.

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  18. Salut joe
    T'inquiète pas mĂªme la france suit ton travail

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  19. Si on regarde le russe 2000 on attaque déjà la baisse de la phase IV

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  20. Thanks a lot for the effort that do to publish your so much accurate analysis.

    I think that the author of a free blog is not forced to publish to daily, and when the market has not moved of shape meaning and/or you do not feel you an enough inspired day to write, does not happen nothing to leave some days without publishing.

    Likewise, readers can cyclically come to your blog, for various reasons. But in any case, you have to think that there is no interest. Simply, we waver, as do the indexes.

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  21. Joe. Im from singapore.12hours time difference. This site is the first thing i read on my toilet bowl every morning. Thats how crucial your blogs have become in my life. I do my own counts but you.. You give me the final thumbs up, joe. Since the youtube days. We appreciate your deeds Joe.. All over the world.

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  22. Hi Joe

    I would like to reiterate what has been expressed here by all. Your knowledge and detailed analysis is something I have not found anywhere, either paid or unpaid on the net. On the odd day that you don't post I return about 10 times hoping that you have just been delayed.

    Many many thanks for all the time and effort you put in on our behalf.

    Best regards

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  23. I read your commentary everyday, and quite often follow the discussion in the Premium Chatroom. However, I don't feel I have any qualifications to add to the discussion. Just following the play by play. Please keep it up!

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  24. I understand your concern regarding the lack of comments, but you should not assume that nobody reads or appreciates your work. I often marvel at how an average joe :) can count waves more accurately that the "pros" at the big EW service. However, I only post a comment if something you write is unclear, so I hardly ever post ;)

    While I'm posting a comment, I'll throw out a request: I'd love to see your take on the current count for the US dollar and gold.

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  25. Hi Joe, I check into your blog weekly. From time to time I link to it in my blog The Setup For The Big Trade. The reason I gravitated to you is that I, also using EWave myself, in particular appreciate your thoughtfulness during corrective action. I suspect that precious metals people are ground down by continuing corrective price action, and stock traders are now fully trained to buy the dip and are drifting away from the analysis blogosphere into trend following systems. That situation will of course change before long. Keep your personal sentiment levels up!

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  26. Hi Joe,

    I will admit I don't come to your blog too often. I have too much going on in life but I was an avid YouTube watcher back in the days when I had more time. You bring EW to the masses. I love reading your insights. I'm paying more attention now then ever because I feel we're getting close to a top. You are always the first person I read.

    I thought of something that may or may not be the case... Your main page seems to display the full article content. Are you running a script that can detect scrolling through an article on the main page vs clicking the article links?

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  27. Hi Joe, I too read your blog every day but don't have much to contribute. I used to subscribe to EWI for a few years but was really disappointed that they were wrong at a large degree of trend. Now I take their free stuff only, and even that with a grain of salt. Thank you for posting every day!

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  28. Hi Joe.

    Please do continue your posting!

    I'm reading your posts every day, and trying to learn the ropes of EW.
    I'm not a poster here, because I think I'm to "green" in EW to make any useful comments yet. I still have a hard time just to label the waves correctly, and your comments and analysis/slides is worth it's weight in gold!

    This corrective wave/move got me all confused, I closed all my long positions because I couldn't make a reliable decision of where we were heading next. Better be safe than sorry with your hard saved up investments :-)

    Thanks for all your work and analysis, and please do not stop posting your truly valuable and detailed analysis!

    Regards
    Bent B. Jensen

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    1. What is the one thing you find most difficult. Maybe when things settle down I can try to address it.

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  29. I would post every day but it would be the same thing over and over again. Thank you, thank you, thank you...etc., etc. etc. Still waiting for this wave 4. Someone once said: "the waiting is the hardest part".
    rose

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    1. Hi Rose! No worries. I know where you stand, and thanks!

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  30. Hi Joe,
    Thank you so much for your posts, I read it every day, i've never seen better EW analysis on the internet.
    Regards

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    1. Thanks tref. It's nice to know and the comment is appreciated.

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