I said that if prices made a new high in the ES futures contract I would address the possibility of a third wave as an alternate. Well, like the NDX, the ES rollover month contract has done that - made a new high. So, the current count and best alternate fit like the ES! daily chart below.
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| ES! Futures - Daily - Rollover Alternate |
Unfortunately, neither cash nor just the lead month contract can be counted in this (alternate, red) way because the new high needed for circle-iii, minute-iii, is just not present for them yet. To count them as a diagonal would be in the current count with a potential failure if price can not soon establish new all-time-highs. Please remember there is an end-of-the-month and end-of-the-quarter scenario ahead to be followed by the potential of the first-of-the-month, first-of-the-quarter passive inflows on 1 October.
Have a good start to the day.
TraderJoe
(From: CNBC)
ReplyDeleteNvidia releases software platform to stop AI agents from misbehaving
The fox is now watching the henhouse.
TJ
ORCL force majeure - will bonds be downgraded to junk soon?
Deletehttp://techcrunch.com/2026/09/24/oracle-sends-force-majeure-notice-on-its-new-mexico-stargate-data-center/
SPX500 (CFD) 4-hr: here's a triangle-way to keep the impulse for (a) alive. It is entirely provisional at this time, and requires a higher high. It is do-able, but like all triangles might be a bit treacherous. I would keep the invalidation point below wave Ⓐ of the triangle.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/t29mPCTK/
Note a larger triangle into Oct 1 is possible, too. If the triangle invalidates, however, then it is possible the i,ii,iii up is just a smaller degree a,b,c of a larger diagonal as (a). Again, this chart is a way to keep the 'impulse' version alive because the Ⓔ wave of the triangle might not overlap.
TJ
fyi only - Conference Board Consumer Confidence shrinks to 81.9% from 88.6% according to Forex Factory econ calendar. TJ.
ReplyDeleteThere maybe a bigger triangle in play since early june in spx
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: from the intraday-wave-counting-screen; new overnight low, and close outside of the lower band. Three-waves up from 2 am to 8 am, and five-waves-down from 8 am. Messy. TJ.
ReplyDeleteIt didn't overlapped yet.
Delete15 minute SPY- Positive divergences have formed in MACD and RSI.
ReplyDeleteSPY has invalidated the potential triangle; just waiting on futures. TJ
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ