Just a cautionary note. The latest downward wave in the SPX500 (CFD) and in its cash equivalent, the SPY, does not show evidence of breaking a base channel (or Kennedy Channel Technique - KCT) lower yet. So far, the recent down wave has stayed away from the lower channel boundary.
There is a non-zero probability, and maybe a substantial one, this sequence counts as w-x-y, down, and might overall be a (b) wave of some degree, especially being against the lower daily Bollinger Band. The correction from 30 Aug to 1 Sep is at or less than 38%. But because there is no upward overlap yet, we can only look and wait to see if a lower low is made. If one is made, then the whole sequence might count as one impulse with an extended first wave in a wedge. That would be perfectly fine, but the down wave with a lower low must form first to conclude that.
Whereas if a lower low is not made, and the upper channel boundary breaks, first, then it is possible the structure is w-x-y as a larger (b) wave.
Have an excellent rest of the evening.
TraderJoe
No comments:
Post a Comment