Just a cautionary note. The latest downward wave in the SPX500 (CFD) and in its cash equivalent, the SPY, does not show evidence of breaking a base channel (or Kennedy Channel Technique - KCT) lower yet. So far, the recent down wave has stayed away from the lower channel boundary.
There is a non-zero probability, and maybe a substantial one, this sequence counts as w-x-y, down, and might overall be a (b) wave of some degree, especially being against the lower daily Bollinger Band. The correction from 30 Aug to 1 Sep is at or less than 38%. But because there is no upward overlap yet, we can only look and wait to see if a lower low is made. If one is made, then the whole sequence might count as one impulse with an extended first wave in a wedge. That would be perfectly fine, but the down wave with a lower low must form first to conclude that.
Whereas if a lower low is not made, and the upper channel boundary breaks, first, then it is possible the structure is w-x-y as a larger (b) wave.
Have an excellent rest of the evening.
TraderJoe
SPX500 (CFD) 1 hr: made an overnight new low by about 3 pts, but so far, that would mean cash hasn't. If cash can, and extended the losses a bit further, that might be a more convincing wave.
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TJ
As far as I can tell; cash did not work out with the lower low. And in terms of channels, this 4-hr channel is amazing in its touch points.
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It could be 1) all of minute ((ii)) lower for the larger diagonal, upward, although it seems very shallow for that, 2) it could be part of a larger diagonal lower, but that will not be addressed until below the lows again.
TJ
Channel mid line reversal happened yesterday and now above the channel.
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Might be going for 5th wave.
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