Once again in the SPY cash index, the Kennedy Channel technique is not quite applicable (this is also known as the "base channel" technique by R. N. Elliott). As you can see from the SPY 15-min chart below, a parallel channel drawn around waves i/a, and ii/b does not afford the result of a third wave popping out of the upper channel boundary to announce itself. Maybe it will tomorrow, but it hasn't yet.
And, yet, in about 106 candles the EWO is darn-near down to the zero line: certainly enough to be in fourth wave territory. So, The Eight-Fold-Path-Method says the two sets of labels are equivalent until something comes along to distinguish them. We need to see if a valid fourth wave can hold up without overlap, or we need to see if wave three stops downward travel here and extends, or if the fourth wave busts as so many have done in the past.
The odds are only ever-so-slightly in favor of the impulse because the third wave is slightly longer, but just. Again, in a situation where the odds are nearly even it is either pure guess-work or near-gambling to test those odds with ones own money. My approach is simple, "we need a bit more information".
Have an excellent rest of the evening,
TraderJoe
MACD histogram is showing the 4th wave print, IF it's an impulse.
ReplyDeleteThanks for the response on previous post!
ReplyDeleteYw. TJ.
DeleteS&P Global PMI's came in a bit 'hot'; showing economic growth. Market currently reacting negatively (higher rates & dollar?).
ReplyDeleteSPY (cash) 15-min: here is the chart update as of the top of the hour.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mYEle6lk/
TJ
..down wave is now 'longer' than ii/b so this 'should be' a iv; or it can be ii of a diagonal forming - but there is no sign of overlap trouble forming yet.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/BbBH7ezb/
TJ
SPX500 (CFD) 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen, after two closes outside of the lower band (odds 5 - 7%), the last bar barely closed inside the band but did. This resets the number of consecutive closes. The 18-per intraday 'currently' has a cross below the 100-per intraday. And the slow stochastic needs to be watched to see if loses the embedded status or not.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/a58kYueb/
The rebound occurred from the 38.2% retrace on wave iii/c, so far.
TJ
SPX500 (CFD) 30-min: after two more closes below the band and the Gorilla-Glue trade that followed, the intraday slow stochastic embedded. It is now at risk of losing the embedded status. If it does, it means that price and the intraday SMA may try to come together again.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/xVssiE6q/
TJ
SPXT, RUT and DJIA are all leading the way, no way this pig stays afloat for much longer, full moon on Saturday, Steve Puetz is out there somewhere, rubbing his hands, like me.
ReplyDeleteLol! If only pigs could fly...!
DeleteSPX500 (CFD) 2 hr: the overlap warning did trigger about 05:43 EDT today, as below. This likely rules out the impulse scenario.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/3bcGIcV5/
TJ
Thanks Tj. Likely rules means?
ReplyDeleteSPX500 (CFD) 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen. From the S2 daily pivot low, there is now an expanding diagonal, up. 1) It could go further, 2) it could be leading or ending, and is therefore very risky until it is known if the low holds.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Qh8zXtdg/
SPY cash does 'not' show this pattern well.
TJ
(From CNBC) S&P 500 bounces slightly on report U.S. and Iran discussing reopening of Strait of Hormuz. TJ
ReplyDeleteI wonder if you, or anyone, could explain how EW still works in an age where the US government and its affiliates LITERALLY act to move markets when necessary. We know that massive insider options trades are placed minutes before Trump tweets, and then cashed in after the market moves. So, how does EW give you any sort of edge when they can and do yank the markets around at will? Is EW not just the most futile exercise known in the markets?
Delete1. Nothing has changed since the US got on the Federal Reserve System in 1913, and 2) since the GOLD window was closed in 1974 by Richard Nixon. A debt-based fiat currency system works until the leverage gets way too high, and bad bets are made by incorrect signals sent by interest rates & other mis-pricings. People are just people and sometimes someone, somewhere will go 'way too far'. Then, their hedge fund busts, or Madoff gets exposed, or their bank goes under. It has always happened in the fiat system. It likely always will unless the fiat system is changed. It hasn't yet. Make no mistake, the 'friends' of J.P. Morgan & of Nelson Rockefeller also placed large bets having been given 'inside information' which is 'wink-wink' technically still illegal. Those advantages have always been there and they always will until regulators decide to check individual communications which to my knowledge they have not, except in court cases.
DeleteTJ
That's a long reply explaining things I already know about the monetary system (1971 Nixon came off gold btw). But you didn't even attempt to answer a genuine question about the apparent lack of value in gaining an edge with EW in such rigged markets. SIlence speaks volumes I suppose. Cheers.
DeleteI measure & count; measure & count. Sometimes (not always) set-ups appear from the count. I may personally take them or not. I do not provide trading or investment advice. I have provided elsewhere a link to Ira Epstein's full public trading guidelines as best I understand them. As for what you do? So far, it is 'run at the mouth and criticize'. This is what most emotional novices do as the top is approached. Someday soon I may say when I am more convinced of significantly lower prices. Not just yet, and, anyway, people with your attitude don't necessarily deserve to know in any case.
DeleteTJ
Post deleted for profanity from an emotional baby. No profanity allowed here. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ.