The ES daily swingline indicator currently has a lower low and now, today, a higher high bar against the 18-day moving average as in the chart below.
So, a flat or more extensive combination off of the low is still possible. The daily slow stochastic is still in over-sold territory. It feels like "summer quiet" and like someone sucked the energy out of the market.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
SPX500 (CFD) 1-hr: overnight & opening contracting diagonal, so far.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/s4Lp0dlq/
TJ
..this candle now has a slight length violation so it is either converting to the w-x-y-x-z form of the triple zz, OR the impulse form to go over the top again. There was a very brief retrace. TJ.
Delete..yechh .. everything still overlapping; for now.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/PzAeAV7H/
TJ
..the impulse version, with a flat wave in the middle would invalidate below the 9 am lows. That 'might' leave 1) a triangle, 2) an expanding diagonal in either direction. But, first it would have to invalidate. TJ.
Deletehttps://schrts.co/HVYdXzyS
ReplyDeleteCould an EED be valid? (from the ath labeled as a b) Looks weak to me but it's the only way I can make a case for a new impulse starting from the low of the 24th.
Something like this is still good in hourly cash, subject to the usual contracting diagonal limits.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/rQvYBqAT/
TJ
.. a fourth wave of a contracting diagonal 'c' wave may not go below 763.26 in cash for the contracting variety. TJ.
DeleteRight, an orthodox 5 waves down followed by an inverted flat is definitely the preferred structure. I was just trying to find a count that would allow a new impulse to have started from the low of the 24th. Granted the 5th wave of a diagonal down would have to be called a failure.
DeleteThe 9 AM low was exceeded lower. The lower trend line is 'tentative'. A triangle is possible. Diagonals are also possible.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Ff7TXYTb/
TJ
ES 4-hr: the hourly futures could try something dastardly like either of the two counts shown w-x-y-x-z, so cash could complete and upward diagonal, previously shown OR just the famous w-x-triangle y; which could look like a failure and start a third or 'c' wave lower quicker.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5R0P0q1z/
TJ
Reminder: NVDA earnings after the close. TJ.
ReplyDeleteEPS: $2.22 vs $2.09 estimated.
DeleteRevenue: $96.22 billion vs. $92.17 billion estimated
DeleteSPX500 (CFD) 1 Hr - here's the break of the triangle on the NVDA conference call.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/30EGVUBK/
TJ
So, why canceled?
ReplyDeleteWxyz
ReplyDeleteSPX500 (CFD) 4-hr: here's the best fit so far. One hourly cash gap filled and now approaching the area of the prior fourth wave.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/wBqVCXYL/
TJ
Thanks a lot
ReplyDeletefyi - conference call high in futures now exceeded higher. TJ.
ReplyDeleteSPX500 (CFD) 5-min: yes, there is now downward overlap making things about as murky as one would like. Over the top again might be a diagonal or 'possibly' 3.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/HDBXcy33/
TJ
..now over the top again. TJ.
DeleteHere's the next overlap. "Caution".!
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mFjA6KRg/
TJ
too far for wave (4)!
DeleteThe only way I can see to count upward is with a much larger diagonal, with (1) at today's high, and now into (2) down. (2) down would need to be a zigzag, but not below the 09:40 low. Wave-counting is getting ugly. TJ.
DeleteSPX500 (CFD) 5-min: this would be the larger diagonal idea to carry into tomorrow and maybe next week. The internal waves are getting very, very difficult to count.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/G0Hhtg33/
Again, no diagonals below the low.
TJ
TJ - does this look like an impulse on SPX http://tos.mx/!ko1mmgAo
ReplyDeleteGood work! It certainly could be. TJ.
DeletePlayed out really well!
Deletehttp://tos.mx/!0HwBqSgu
So does that count get a C label?
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ