The ES futures today invalidated the expanding diagonal possibility. That leaves a few options. But mostly the levels traders would probably say a new risk area has been defined as on the ES 8-hr (rollover) chart, below.
So, the primary reason for the chart is that the formation just doesn't at this time look like a triangle. The wave labeled a/i/b is probably not deep enough for a symmetrical triangle. Or, if we are making a barrier triangle, then today's up wave is not high enough. That could change, of course.
The down wave is currently labeled as a/i/b because it could be a five-wave contracting diagonal instead of the expanding diagonal. So, that could be a/i or it could be just a three-wave structure as a b wave which might be part of a larger upward diagonal.
But, let me be clear, there is real risk of going over the top again. That could still happen in a triangle or in a diagonal. But we don't have quite enough waves to better visualize those right now.
Today was very, very overlapping and whippy. The down wave was too. So, the count remains undefined until we get more information. I would keep an eye out on that Local Trend Line.
The day after a holiday is often an up day in a relief rally when nothing seriously bad happens over the weekend. And Tuesday is often, not always, a reversal day when Monday is an up day.
We'll see how it goes. Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
DOW (DIA) Daily Some thoughts
ReplyDeletehttps://schrts.co/RtcSRAsn
ES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen. Outside reversal bar lower potential; and touch of lower band. Watch for close. Nearing prior low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/SkVv9ebX/
TJ
prior overnight low exceeded lower. TJ.
Deletechart:
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/NQ4PggqZ/
TJ
...close of candle gives outside reversal candle lower. Watch its high. TJ.
DeleteSPY (Cash) 1 hr : the gap up opening yesterday has been undercut.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/2073Czr1/
TJ
Spacex inclusion is hitting Nasdaq100 too. NDX infact fast tracked inclusion and atleast Spx didn't.
ReplyDeleteES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: three consecutive closes below the lower band drops the odds from 5 - 7% to 3 - 5% of the close below the band (not impossible, just drops the odds). Doesn't 'look' like a turn-around candle, yet, fwiw.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/W3MEiu5f/
TJ
ES 30-min: close inside the band resets the number of consecutive closes. Outside bar, up. TJ.
DeleteNow back to combination of 18-per and 100-per intraday SMA's.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/f8joJPJr/
TJ
This is how I have been counting the upward correction since the most recent low in the S&P 500 Cash Index on Friday 26 June:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/AjisibBH/
I tend to stay away from w-x-y's without 'clear' evidence of overlap. Wave at the top looks like a :5. TJ.
Delete...my tendency to count it in the futures goes this way.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/0Z4cNdZv/
...and I am 'not' assuming the up wave is over yet, until (b) is taken out lower, which it may be. I just want to give it some time.
TJ
Thank you for the very interesting chart & count, Trader Joe! 😸
DeleteThese waves since Friday 26 June have been very choppy.
But with the Nasdaq 100 starting to look like a Starship ocean landing (just 50 points from breaking through the low today), I am tempted to think that the S&P 500 might get pulled down into the vortex!
NQ September futures have broken through their Friday 26 June low.
DeleteES also dropping toward Thursday 2 July low.
ES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen: price reached 90% of the prior low for all-intents-and-purposes, and then reacted.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/vmKVRKmL/
TJ
ES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen. After four closes below the lower band, dropping the odds to 2 - 5%, price rebounded to the 18-per intraday SMA. Since then, there has been a 78.6+% retrace and a bounce from there.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/K3jGXEhP/
I'd put a 'wave-counting-stop' at this morning's high for a triangle, or if that gets busted look for more upward. Nothing says we can't also go straight back to the lows in a channel count. The bands are starting to bend downward, and the intraday slow stochastic is not over-sold. Daily, price is below the 18-day SMA, so the two, daily and intraday, are in gear for now.
TJ
👍🏼
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ