Eerily Similar with 'The Right Look' - Not Confirmed

Here is a monthly chart of the NASDAQ 100 (NDX) Index. I have endeavored to count each market as a "five". I have tried to use "impulses" where they best seem to apply based on the rules and degree-labeling definitions. Notice how much green there is in the volume graph in 2025 & 2026.  Why didn't they like them so much in 2017 & 2018 when prices were much lower?!. They sure liked them more in 2025. As far as I can tell, one enormous difference between the NDX, SPX and DJIA is the presence of the "running wave" in the NDX in 2020. This would be an omen for "exceptional upward strength to follow". Note, too, wave (4) overlaps wave (1).

NASDAQ 100 (NDX) Index - Monthly - Five Up

And here is the boring ole' DJIA futures (YM).

Dow Industrials (YM) Futures - Monthly - Similar to NDX

The Dow, too, has the overlap. It is eerily similar to the NDX, with the exception of the absence of the running wave in 2020. Although I have tried to count impulses wherever practical, the grinding nature of the chart - especially in 2023 made it seemingly impossible without breaking 'rules' or the degree definitions. So, A-B-C or W-X-Y sequences result in the sub-waves. Keep in mind the A's and C's are still impulses or diagonals. But, there can be a "five-count", up, overall.

Again, neither of these counts are confirmed, and there IS a monthly alternate, yet - the expanding diagonal. And besides the longer term alternate, there is the local alternate of a triangle on the daily chart - as noted before - that could still point upward, but I'm not buying any hopium on that one. I'm just counting waves. Right now, all of the Minor degree waves are visible, and a partial downturn is also just showing up on the charts.

The confirmation process would only 'start' with 1) trading below the upper rising trend line, again, and 2) a break below the Minor B wave of Intermediate (5). Price is nowhere close yet. And, then, there are further confirmation steps after that.

I have intentionally tried not to rush 'any' count. I'll be as patient as the day is long. Right now these are the wave sequences that best seem to fit. That could change. But, I think it's important that readers be aware of the potential of these counts as they tend to indicate that any serious down movement could occur quite rapidly once it gets recognized and/or confirmed enough for the Smart Money to act on it.

This is the second post this weekend, and if you haven't read the first one yet, you might like to. Have an excellent rest of the weekend,

TraderJoe