The Principle of Equivalence says that within the potential barrier triangle we need to consider at least two close-in local scenarios with today's price movement lower that went essential nowhere. The first one is that the minuet (d) wave is completed as shown in the ES 4 Hr chart, below.
That would make today's expanding diagonal downward the lower degree "A" wave of the minuet (e) wave of the triangle. And, again, that (e) wave can take out the prior X wave lower.
The second scenario is that the expanding diagonal today ended the lower degree (C) wave of an expanded flat of a Ⓑ wave - since it went nowhere important - and the (d) wave requires a higher high Ⓒ wave up, to finish the Y wave, now, as in the chart below.
I have no preference which occurs. I have no dog in the fight. On the daily chart, price is still above the 18-day SMA. The rationale for the second count is that often in a barrier triangle prices quickly go over the prior high, then settle back under it on the close using the timeframe of interest (ES 8 Hr or daily here). That hasn't happened yet. It could.
Note, the MACD is curled over on the 4-Hr. There is a 'way' we could have topped. But price extension lower isn't showing it yet. Maybe it will. It just hasn't yet. I'll be keeping my eyes open.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
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