Like different groups preparing for a revolutionary war battle, the daily ES timeframe and the intraday are currently practicing their maneuvers - and probably in lighter volume as we head into a holiday-shortened week and one in which many, many people take the whole week off for their vacations. While, today, price is just barely below the 18-day SMA on the daily chart the intraday situation is at odds.
Overnight the market has ground up and is still currently over the intraday 18-per SMA. The intraday slow stochastic is waffling around and is not yet embedded. The uptrend pattern is very overlapping at this point, but I could see a way where it is not a war injury that won't heal. But this does remain a warning sign. It remains to be seen if the two timeframes can get in synch.
Have an excellent start to the day.
TraaderJoe
ES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen. Price gets down near lower band and currently reverses with an outside bar, up. Whippy & fighting.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5VZyyjQZ/
TJ
...outside bar guidelines are in effect. The low of the outside bar should not be taken out in the next two bars or a trap for the bulls will have been set. Also, we need to see where this bar closes. TJ.
Delete...interesting; weak 'spinning-top' candle; requires significant lower close to confirm aa break of the low if that occurs.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5KnM9BJ6/
TJ
..low of reversal bar exceeded lower; 'may have' set a trap for the bulls. TJ.
Delete..now down to 100-per intraday. TJ,
Delete..five prior down (red) fractals exceeded lower. The daily pivot point and/or gap can be next targets. The caution is price is below the lower band. TJ
DeleteES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: whippy and back up inside band. No closes above or below band. The 'risk range' has been effectively expanded. Have to watch the morning high and morning low.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QU1C7mYD/
TJ
Thanks Tj. " The tile "Fighting" was so appropriate.
ReplyDeleteAlso, generally you do a long term chart anyaysis around month end or first week and those reads are so good.
ES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: and now their world-famous party-trick; better than a 90% retrace.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/JkdXKX9Q/
TJ
This is how I have been counting the decline since Monday 15 June, in the S&P 500 Cash Index, FYI (sorry for the incorrect degree in the wave labels - I have never found a good solution for generating Elliott Wave labels in Trading View):
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/a9Y46BGI/
Perhaps this count would look better as a Bearish Leading Diagonal? There is significant overlap. 🤔
DeleteES/SPY (CFD) 1-hr: this is the count off the low, so far. There is a possibility that this is iv of a larger expanding diagonal.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/6JNoxP8T/
TJ