Time, Time, Time ...

...see what's become of me. With no apologies to Simon & Garfunkel - who certainly don't need mine - the purpose of this post is only to note the time relationships between the down wave and the up wave in the ES/SPY (CFD) 2-hr chart below.

As of right now, there are only roughly half the number of up bars as down bars. And strictly speaking that's ok, but slightly lower odds. Often times corrections take as much time or more as their motive wave counterparts. So, in the comments for the prior post, I outlined some ways that this correction - which certainly looks like a Flat - could extend in time as a multiple flat or a Flat-X-Zigzag.

Predicting such is horrible stuff, and the market could always decide that the downward pull of a third wave (C wave, or not) is simply too great for now and a next wave could break lower at nearly any point. Keep in mind, today's up wave was made on news and sometimes those form weaker waves because only the pros/bots/machines get to react other than retail stops being hit.

Nonetheless, I do think the presence of the Flat wave - whether it continues or not - with its lower "b" wave argues more for a follow-on wave lower than an immediate return to the high. This is all a game of odds, and the Flat tilts the odds a bit in favor of a continuation wave lower.

Looking at today's daily bar, it was an outside day up with a close still below the 18-day SMA. Also, it is the second bar after the outside day down on Tuesday, so a trap was not set for the bears. But being an outside day up, it's low should not be taken out within the next two sessions or it would constitute a trap for the bulls.

The daily slow stochastic is still over-sold.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe