Provisional Top - 2

For today's post I said in the comments I would post the potential alternate count found after the overlap was made in pre-market session in the ES 4-hr futures. I mentioned I couldn't find one last night, and this one wasn't made possible until the lower low this morning.

There are things to dislike about the alternate - which is why it is the alternate - but as you probably know price in today's session has already gotten up to 78.6% of yesterday's down wave. So, either count is on the table. We'll see if the down movement after the close creates a gap-n-go or not.

One thing I was monitoring all day - as I do every day - was the intraday wave-counting-screen. Overnight I had noticed that it was possible the futures & CFD were getting an expanded flat wave that never showed up in the cash market, as below.

And it was interesting to note that the level of 2.618 x a-3 added to b-3 was right at the R1 daily pivot today. My personal confidence in this expanded flat is only about 60-40 by-the-way. That's because while second waves can be flat waves, they are a little less typical than those made from zigzags.

In the cash session, price broke the three up (green) fractals in the middle of the chart and never looked back until the close. It was also interesting to note that no additional fractals were made, up or down, until the closing candles which made an up (green) fractal. So, this is where a wave-counting-stop would go in my book. The market has made sure to widen out the risk of a fractal trade to all the way back down at the early morning low for the time being. That might change overnight.

So, either a top is "in" and we had an expanded flat at the low. Or, possibly, there is still a triangle working given the 78% retrace. In either that case or the diagonal, it is possible to go over the top again. We'll see how Friday goes.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe