According to the daily ES chart, below, the wave count has been proceeding pretty much as anticipated given all the number of diagonals to fit into the picture and to figure out how they alternate.
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| ES Futures - Daily - Watching Prior Low |
The wave degrees are noted in the chart. We are watching to see if either the expanding triangle or the expanded flat gets activated by prices moving below the low of the prior minute ⓒ wave this week or next. If it does, then the pattern becomes a matter of the length of the wave down because so far - from a time standpoint - this down wave has already consumed more time than the prior ⓒ wave which is what is classically expected in an expanding triangle.
We will note that tonight price filled the up gap in the futures from 25 Nov 2025 if you look back to the left. Still, there is a gap down tonight, and a gap down from 27 Feb 2026.
The daily MACD is currently headed lower, and the 200-day simple moving average in the futures has been tagged or broken, depending on whether one is using the lead-month contract or the roll-over contract. Further, price has broken the lower daily Bollinger Band for the second day and tagged the weekly one.
So, one might look for signs of the Smart Money to take profits on shorts near the bands, maybe letting some ride, and this may create some whippy action in this area.
P.S. I would put a wave-counting-stop (brown w.c.s) above the wave labeled (b)/(ii) as an indication that a different count is playing out.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Thank you for the updated chart on a Sunday evening.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: opening overnight futures gap closed. TJ.
ReplyDeleteES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: spinning-top doji candle, followed by significant lower low confirming candle, followed by overlap, with slow stochastic not yet embedded.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/IUd37xdZ/
While not fatal, it suggests - if there is further up move - it might be diagonal. Else, the 18-per intraday or lower is possible.
TJ
SPY (cash) 15-min: the basics of a diagonal five count up 'appear' to be in place. Can go a bit further if it wants, with a caveat about the alternate.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/QJJyIDKf/
TJ
..bear in mind that in cash, for a larger diagonal, there should be overlap again, but price should not exceed 100% of wave ii - below 678.08 as shown.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/gHqTxfQC/
TJ
red alt iv defeated lower; the diagonal is on. Only question is if is leading or ending.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/LyguQwoW/
TJ
..now into five-waves-down. TJ.
DeleteThanks Tj.
DeleteIs this correct?
https://youtu.be/WZWdOwoRsZA?si=vNY3HNaCQnPUsqMy
Yes.
DeleteTJ.
ES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: overnight down wave count like this 5-3-5-3-5 diagonal. Ignoring degree labels for a moment the 'c' of 4 was very weak and failed slightly. It was a truncated zigzag. Don't let the eyes deceive.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/6OEeoF2N/
TJ
ES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: reminder of the intraday wave-counting-screen. Price was down to the lower band and has overlapped upward. So far, the break of the low is a 1.236 wave, which might be a 'b' wave, but hard to tell.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8y05q9Jj/
Watch for any whippy volatility inside the bands.
TJ
... intraday w-c-s, watch to see if 18-per bear-x-cross 100-per persists for the bar. Also, intraday slow stochastic is oversold, and not yet embedded. TJ.
DeleteES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: as of the cash close it couldn't crack the afternoon prior high (aftn). Maybe it will overnight or tomorrow.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YFtxHD95/
TJ
ES/SPY (CFD) 1-hr: move down that started with a diagonal is still looking like three-wave moves. Needs more waves for a diagonal.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/u2qGE7bE/
TJ
Price is up over the channel; counts best down as a double-zigzag at present.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/dTysKp3k/
Because the count in the channel is corrective, and channel is not very steep, this may mean that price needs to try to revisit the prior high.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ