Until Today ..

Until today, the lengths were not correct. Yes, everyone recognized the whippy, range-bound, overlapping nature of the wave-count. But, until today, the waves were not long enough to call the down structure an expanding diagonal, as in the ES 12-hr chart below. This is the case only in the futures and not in the cash market. The SPY contract has too many waves missing from the count.

It's an odd timeframe to have to be charting or even following. Yet today we can see that a fifth wave, v, is longer in price and time than the third wave iii. So, this could mean that if price is making the expanding triangle downward, then this wave could be the minuette (a) wave of the minute ⓔ wave yet to come of the Minor B wave.

Again, we don't know that that is the case, but its likelihood is growing every day. The downwardly biased chop feels like a diagonal grind. And, today, prices again overlapped upward which is hard to explain using pure impulse structures. We also know that prices got down and through the lower daily Bollinger Band on this contract - where the Smart Money likely lightened up at least some of their positions - and prices did not quite make it down to the 200-day SMA.

So, again, because of the whip & the chop, please be patient, calm and flexible. 

Have an excellent rest of the evening,

TraderJoe