Today's seeming failure wave, and outside candle lower, increases the odds a bit for the completion of either the daily expanding triangle lower or the daily expanded flat lower. The ES daily chart (roll-over contract) is below.
IFF the diagonal that we sketched out in the overnight waves completed a c wave, up, of the minuet (b) wave, up, then the count, should it break the low, might go back down to complete the minute ⓔ wave of the Minor B wave lower. So far, the price structure keeps failing at the 18-day SMA, so this increases the odds as well.
Again, the prior daily low must be exceeded lower as must the 25 Nov 2025 low be exceeded lower for a valid expanding triangle to be claimed. And, if price keeps heading lower than certain levels, it is possible the expanded flat version of the wave will take over. We will sketch that out in days ahead, if it is needed.
As with all outside days lower (ODL), the high of the ODL should not be exceeded higher in the next two trading sessions or it might form a trap for the bears.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Almost time to be looking for those red capitulation volume bars
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