Overnight initially gapped lower, traded lower for a few hours, as we suspected, and then there was a gradual but steady rise into about 7 AM eastern time. This was in keeping with the guidance that initiating new naked short positions under the band is fraught with risk. The turn-around in this case was 120+ ES points. Then from 7 AM forward, after prices were back inside the band, prices declined all the way back down to the overnight low and exceeded it a bit, as shown on ES daily chart below.
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| ES Futures - Daily - 2nd Close Below the Lower Band |
Thus, there is now a second close under the band, dropping the odds to about 4 - 6% of the next close being outside of the band (not impossible, just lower odds). The regular calculation of the daily slow stochastic is still over-sold only and not yet embedded.
From an Elliott Wave perspective today appears to be some or all of a fourth wave. I lean more towards some because of the brevity of the wave, so far. Fourth waves tend to be malingerers. This one isn't yet.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
I wonder if correction over
ReplyDeleteCan't say for sure, but at the moment, based on the intraday wave-counting-screen only have what look like three waves in a channel. That could change. Price is still under the 18-day SMA, and daily slow stochastic is still over-sold.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/MHebWrEW/
TJ
ES 30-min: there's a new local high for the 'first-of-the-month' money. Higher than the overnight high. TJ.
ReplyDeleteIt certainly looks like 'five-wave-up' in a channel in the CFD.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/uHfh0YKV/
TJ
...this includes a 1.618 wave. TJ.
DeleteOn cash it stills seems like 5th of cycles or 3rd
DeleteC not cycles
DeleteET: Is it ok to have length of ii > circle 2.
DeleteOn TOS, the length of ii is longer than circle 2.
Does that qualify as degree violation ?
EDT: it's a real question down there where the 2's end. If you move ii one trough to the right, like below, then there is no degree violation. There are also ways to relabel circle 2, as a flat or w-x-y, but that seems to provide no alternation. So, I only have so much time for such things ;p
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/9SWVT3mK/
TJ
@Jack, there are currently still ways in futures to make a larger "running" triangle fourth wave 'or' a Flat wave. Haven't closed out this wave just yet. TJ.
DeleteWhere you have circle 2 and the i..in smaller time frame they look like flat wave ie i is 3 waves in smaller time frame so this is all one flat correction. Maybd
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/nh6HKsNc/
DeleteJust fyi - POTUS takes to the airwaves tonight, currently scheduled for 9 PM ET. I imagine a lot of people will just exit the markets. TJ.
ReplyDeleteLol! A most appropriate response to the bloviations of the "Liar-in-Chief"!
DeleteLOTUS
DeleteLol, TDS kids will be kids.
DeleteWhat is tds
Delete