As best I can tell at the moment, a retrace of wave iii in the ES 1-hr futures would be very shallow and most of it would have occurred during holiday trading hours. So, a deeper fourth wave might be allowed to form until or unless there is downward overlap.
The overlap level in the futures is shown. Since in this configuration wave i is the longest wave, or the extended wave in the sequence, then wave v should remain shorter than wave iii.
Have an excellent rest of the evening,
TraderJoe
It will be interesting to see if the gaps close this week on the Nasdaq, S&P, and SMH. The $CPCE move to the lows on Friday.
ReplyDeleteC down has started in my opinion. I counted Friday as a 5 . Well, bias is still up
ReplyDeleteSeven years of CBOE put/call ratio.
ReplyDeletehttps://i.postimg.cc/ZRpknL4J/Capture12125.png
Over the weekend found an old video in archive which someone send me 11 years ago. I didn't believe then and not even now but those who did made a lot of money.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0akBdQa55b4
THAT is blankin hilarious. I needed a good laugh this moanin.
DeleteSo 'iv' is done? A flat for ES; a running wave for NQ?
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/IZiffeU2/
Maybe we run higher into the next Fed meeting (Dec 10?), a 25bp cut likely. Plus we have strong seasonals.
ReplyDeleteAfter that, maybe the BOJ raises interest rates in Japan (Dec 18?)? Which should stimulate additional unwinding of the Yen carry trade. The Fed cutting rates also puts pressure on the carry trade. So maybe the U S rate cut is actually bad news?
Unwinding the carry trade pulls money out of Bitcoin, which plunged over the weekend breaking a rebound rally.
SPY 5-min: this bar already high enough for a diagonal. Watch the 100% level in case it extends. Nothing until something identifiable emerges.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/HBFXiFVg/
TJ
Now over the prior local high. TJ.
DeleteDownward wave is now the longest since the wedge started. I would put a 'wave-counting-stop' above the top of the wedge. If it is hit before a lower daily low is made first, then the wedge points up, and not down.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/17keGKo2/
TJ
..the triple bottoms render a wave-count highly unreliable at this point, and we must use utmost caution. TJ.
Delete..downward wave now the longest of any in the SPY 5-min sequence.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/UZ9pJsB5/
This tends to mean the only way for bulls to recapture the high is with an expanding diagonal, up. But, we don't know down movement is over.
TJ
..move the wave counting stop down to here; as higher would indicate some kind of up wave in formation (even possibly the upward expanding diagonal) rather than continuation of the break lower.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/T10vu6DQ/
Watch the overnight and the futures for clues.
TJ
It is upward expanding diagonal then.
DeleteSPY (Cash) 30-min: does have a new high. ES futures missed by a couple of ticks. Can be counted as the expanding diagonal. Can go further but not if below ES 6,512 first.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/eqHWTR52/
TJ
6512?
ReplyDeleteSorry, 6,812; typo. TJ.
DeleteWhat a lame price action for last 4 days
ReplyDeleteWhile one thing is clear that algos/pattern follow Eliot waves what i cant comprehend is who decides if the correction will be simple complex wxy or wxyxz etc etc. Do algos make their own decision based on time required for certain move to happen for example one has to kill time till fed decision...
DeleteThe spastic gyrations simply distract from the current trend, which remains up... 😉
DeleteI have this quote:
Delete"About 60-75 percent of overall trading volume in the U.S. equity market, European financial markets, and major Asian capital markets is generated through algorithmic trading, according to Select USA, in 2018. However, the overall trading volume of algorithmic trading in emerging economies like India is estimated to be around 40 percent."
But, it is now 2025 and many algorithms are driven by AI. Do we have more up-to-date statistics on the amount of algorithmic trading happening in 2024 and/or 2025?
ChatGPT-5.1:
Good question. Short answer: yes — there are some recent data points, but nothing that gives a clean, authoritative “now it’s X % algorithmic” number for 2024/2025 that everyone agrees on. The data is fragmented: sometimes “algorithmic + smart-order-router” share; sometimes “electronic execution + program trades”; sometimes “market-structure / platform-revenue.” Here’s what I found — and why we still don’t have a clean answer.
⸻
✅ What recent evidence says (with caveats)
• A 2025 press release from Coalition Greenwich/CRISIL says that in 2024 “program trades” — i.e. large trades often executed algorithmically or electronically — accounted for ≈ US$79 billion per day, which they estimate as ~13% of total U.S. equity trading volume. 
• The same report states that 46% of those program trades were executed electronically in 2024 (up from 35% two years earlier) — indicating growing electronification of large trades. 
• According to a 2024–2025 market-research report (by a private research vendor), by 2024 more than 72% of U.S. equity trading volume is “algorithmic platform trading,” up from about 60% in 2019. 
• The same report claims ~45% of stock-market trading in Asia was done via algorithmic systems in 2023. 
• A 2025 article from a major global investment-bank-adjacent research group argues that “between 60-70% of trades are now conducted algorithmically” in major global equity markets (including the U.S.). 
⸻
"About 60-75 percent of overall trading volume in the U.S. equity market, European financial markets, and major Asian capital markets is generated through algorithmic trading, according to Select USA, in 2018. However, the overall trading volume of algorithmic trading in emerging economies like India is estimated to be around 40 percent."
DeleteIn terms of what makes simple versus complex corrections, yes, time is one factor (there may be a major announcement due out in a few days, etc.) BUT, because the market is a "chaotic, dynamical, non-linear system", an unexpected news report can come out and change the local pattern, and or, a major player could have a problem and not execute planned trades, etc., or there can be a major disruption to trading systems - like the CME server outages that occurred over the Thanksgiving holiday that I pointed out - and this can cause a lot of people to withdraw their orders until they know the situation is stable again. All of these items 'can' impact the local wave structure. But ultimately, it comes down to who is buying, when, and in what size, and who is selling, when, and in what size. The market-making algorithms are tuned to dampen the 'excess' profits available to any particular order.
Hope this helps, TJ.
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ