The first target we cited last week of the lower daily Bollinger Band was hit and exceeded somewhat as seen in the ES daily futures chart, below.
After hitting the target and the band, price staged a turn-around to close nearly unchanged or slightly positive. The daily slow stochastic is not over-sold. Price did still close below the 18-day SMA so the daily bias is lower as of this time. We additionally note that the speed of the three-day decline was (sic) obviously faster than the speed of the seven-day decline into the prior Friday's low.
This means - if it comes to it - that this prior Friday's low and the wave leading to it can be a sub-wave of a further decline. Now the question is will any upturn respect the recent Wednesday high, and will it take less time? Currently, the wave count can still be seen as the Expanded Flat in progress. Alternatively, even if a minor new low is made below this recent Friday, a triangle might still be in the works.
Either way, whippy trading can be expected. And we know what that means (flexibility, patience, small size, etc.) until further information is available.
Have an excellent rest of the weekend,
TraderJoe
SPY (Cash) 15-min has upward overlap. Taking its time in concert with the theme with this post.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/WkBsXHXa/
Watching a parallel.
TJ
Parallel at 50% broke down to parallel at 62%. Lower than that is a warning. TJ.
Deletehttps://www.forbes.com/sites/adamsarhan/2025/11/16/the-burry-top-legendary-investor-michael-burry-exits-amid-ai-valuation-concerns/
ReplyDeleteThe author of that article is bullish on "AI", but what he really needs is a spelling checker.
DeleteSPY 15-min: near enough to 90% for a Flat, or if it picks up speed a diagonal that converts to an impulse (a possible expanding diagonal or triple-zz 'b' wave is already measurable). Can go further.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/XEshBLPq/
TJ
Now 90% tagged. TJ.
DeleteNow down through the low; looking more decidedly like downside to come; even if there is a rally into the close. TJ.
DeleteTJ, I know that a running triangle(as B) is the alternate count here for daily SPY. Are we very near to it's invalidation point?
ReplyDeleteNot yet. The 78.6% level which is 'typical' of triangles does not occur until ES 6,638.75 and technically 'invalidation' does not occur until ~85-88%. TJ.
DeleteThanks, as always.
DeleteVery welcome. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ