Thursday, November 6, 2025

ES Lower Low Day - 2

With today's lower low the swing line indicator continued lower. Further, the daily bias flipped to down, and this establishes a down trending wave as per the ES daily chart below.


The daily slow stochastic has not broken the 50 level as of the cash close, but neither is it in over-sold territory. If the downtrend continues, the lower daily Bollinger Band would be a first target, and the lower gap close a second target. (There are further targets below that if activated).

For the moment, because of the overlapping structures, we are counting a diagonal downward, currently as a contracting diagonal, but if we need to, we will switch to an expanding one, or a later impulse. More on that as the days progress.

The big news of the day is that members of the Senate are scheduled to have lunch tomorrow. Fancy that! Maybe on full stomachs they will vote to re-open the government. In the dearth of other economic news, one might want to mind one's stops especially closely, as whipsaws might occur in the "we're gonna open; ooops, oh no we're not" scenario or vice-versa.

Have an excellent start to the evening,

TraderJoe

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