With today's lower low the swing line indicator continued lower. Further, the daily bias flipped to down, and this establishes a down trending wave as per the ES daily chart below.
The daily slow stochastic has not broken the 50 level as of the cash close, but neither is it in over-sold territory. If the downtrend continues, the lower daily Bollinger Band would be a first target, and the lower gap close a second target. (There are further targets below that if activated).
For the moment, because of the overlapping structures, we are counting a diagonal downward, currently as a contracting diagonal, but if we need to, we will switch to an expanding one, or a later impulse. More on that as the days progress.
The big news of the day is that members of the Senate are scheduled to have lunch tomorrow. Fancy that! Maybe on full stomachs they will vote to re-open the government. In the dearth of other economic news, one might want to mind one's stops especially closely, as whipsaws might occur in the "we're gonna open; ooops, oh no we're not" scenario or vice-versa.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
ES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: it's hard to argue with five-down in this segment, and is likely the 'a' wave of another diagonal. Unless the fifth wave extends, tho, this is probably pretty bad short trade location.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/wJEVwQ03/
TJ
p.s. the 'alternation' is regular-flat versus failed-flat. Not much, but some. TJ.
DeleteES 5-min: looks like thrust from triangle, lower. Above (e) wave of triangle at 6,725+ likely signals an up move. TJ.
DeleteES daily - we have undercut the prior down (red) fractal.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/bjL954Vk/
TJ
..and just fyi, we have downwardly overlapped the last prior possible up wave.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/hCuKBag8/
The only thing not 100% ruled out is an expanding diagonal up, but it is 90% ruled out by bad initial structure up that looks and counts like a flat wave. The bulls would have to make the case for the expanding diagonal, up, and it is very low probability.
Ira would likely say (paraphrasing), "there is nothing bullish on the chart until a close above the 18-day SMA."
TJ
ES 1-hr: as far as I can tell, the fifth wave is now the extended wave in the sequence. Can go farther if it wishes. TJ.
ReplyDeletehere is the first measurement, beyond equality
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/xs4NclMa/
sometimes these go to 1.618
TJ
ES 30-min: now over 6,725 and confirming upward b wave onset. TJ.
ReplyDeleteAny technical basis for elimination of a possible 2 up, other than initial length of downward wave coupled with downside targets? Equivalence and all that...😊
DeleteNope, see next post which is already up. TJ.
DeleteAny chance we are going thru a running flat and c completed expanding diagonal in es
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ArT966je/
DeleteThe beauty of this count is if there is a breakthru in shutdown then indeed it may end up being a running flat and if the shut down presist etc then this expanding diagonal will be 1 of and it will become expanded flat. Lol
DeleteLess likely, see next post which is already up. TJ.
DeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ