Here's a short Elliott Wave video, by a person who also disagreed with Prechter at the tail end of last year, too.
Are there only two of us? Regardless, The Principle of Equivalence says that a trend change hasn't occurred until new highs are no longer made. And Ira's work suggests there is no trend change until there is a lower low and lower high under the 18-day SMA. As of this writing, there was a new higher high at 23:00 in the overnight futures session. Further, there is progress on China tariffs & there are earnings for AMZN and AAPL after the close tonight.
One thing I will add is the equity-only put-call ratio for yesterday ($CPCE on stockcharts.com) was 0.44 which is back well into the Zone of Speculation and lower than the Sep-Oct lows, but not lower than the May lows.
So, patience, calm and flexibility remain the order of the day, and local technical indications will have to provide short-term guidance.
Have an excellent rest of the day.
TJ
TJ, I'm just wondering if you'd attempt to count (B) as an impulse. Just for fun. I've tried and I can't seem to make anything legal out of it.
ReplyDeleteMeant (b)
DeleteSure, The Principle of Equivalence requires that one considers what could be the opposing structure to the (b) wave, and that would likely be an impulse. As best I can tell, it would start with that very ugly, but legal, diagonal 1st wave. And it would likely mean that the third wave is not complete yet.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/ahf0NVgX/
There is 'some evidence' for this count. It can't be dismissed out of hand. But, in perspective of the larger count the wave would be located in the wrong position unless the Minor B wave ended with the spike down on 10 Oct.
Then, this would be the C wave up. But 'that' is contra-indicated by the fact that the NYSE A/D line just recently made another all-time high.
Hope this helps.
TJ
Absolutely helps, thank you. What I was missing was that diagonal 1st wave.
DeleteWhile I fully understand the concept of "equivalence" as regards abc vs 123 EW counts, ultimately we all agree that any count is an exercise in PROBABILITY. I think a great thought experiment would be to ask whether there are other metrics that could militate against simply assigning 50% probability to abc vs 123 EW counts. Would love to hear forum thoughts. 😊
ReplyDeleteI will offer only a starting point hint for the discussion. It is 'not' The Principle of Equality. It is The Principle of Equivalence. TJ.
Delete..and see comment above @ 11:42a. TJ.
DeleteInteresting view. Some dictionaries disagree, but I do get that a technical definition distinction may obtain. ” the condition of being equal or equivalent in value, worth, function, etc" Oxford's take. 😊
DeleteLook at it more like, "exactly equal" versus "closely similar". TJ
DeleteI thought as much...
DeleteES 4-hr: another lower low. Yet, reminder that AAPL and AMZN are scheduled for earnings releases after the close (similar in importance to a FED meeting?). TJ.
ReplyDeleteAAII sentiment near bullish highs, put/call ratios near the lows, but the Fear/Greed index is in the 30s Fear range... Hmm.
DeleteHello everyone. I am interested in GDX and gold, and I am a real novice with EW, but I think I can count a clear 5 waves down on GDX, and I suspect that might have been wave A of a possible A-B-C correction, with the B wave in progress. If I am way off in my thinking, feel free please to let me know, cheers.
ReplyDeleteMy theory that it was a triangle breakout.. although triangle was not very clean. Then after that what we had was 123 and today ended 4. Look where 4 ended right at 38 fib
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/mSetAZnX/
Hard to see the e wave in that triangle.
DeleteThere is your D and E. Like I said not the cleanest.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/HLBNs6jq/
Jack, a 'count' is not a 'theory'. I know just bad choice of words. But, try to get more 'objective' and use the tools which can help. The EWO in 160 candles does 'not' indicate a triangle at your location. Look at the chart below.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/8Rk9XAZG/
There is no sign of a flat EWO wavering around the zero line. There is the end of a wave, by the deep EWO, then there is the initiation of a new wave with a higher high above the zero line. Then, there are signs of higher high and higher low waves on the way up. The bottom line is this count & your count 'arrive' at the same five-wave structure and now in a possible ivth wave. The difference is the count is supported by evidence and doesn't strain the definition of 'triangle'. Prechter once said, "you can bury almost any count with a triangle'. Meaning, when someone doesn't know what to do, they throw up their hands and just say 'triangle, voila!'.
One should not feel mad, bad or anything else about not getting a count right. Diagonals are as whippy as triangles, and so perfectly explain the 'feeling' at the time.
TJ
EWI has Robert Kelly who has been right all through this rise. Bob Prechter issued a bulletin Saturday pointing out a five 5year EDT and low and behold I think he is finally right. Japan I think is topping now.
ReplyDeletehttp://icecream.me/d97bfcef150c37f7f9c6b4372dd4d21
http://icecream.me/6501f503b42453cfa9ec1bc2365062ca
458african, c'mon; no 3 & 4?! TJ.
DeleteES 30-min: reminder today is the last day of the month and it looks like we are seeing the month-end window dressing now. Next week Monday Nov 3 is the first trading day of the new month and 'often' (not always) sees the usual passive inflow sources (401k's, company bonus plans, pension funds, dividend roll-over schemes, etc.). Sometimes (not always) in the second half of the Friday before, the big futures players try to front-run those inflows, unless they are expecting a big announcement, important earnings, etc.
ReplyDeleteTJ
ES 30-min: afternoon down wave currently shorter than morning down wave, and then upward overlap. IF it continues down it might form a diagonal. If they play it higher, it might be a complex, difficult-to-count wave 4. TJ.
ReplyDeleteI'd put a downward wave-counting-stop above 6,883 (ES Dec) as the upward wave would be too long for a contracting downward diagonal. At present, in no-man's land. TJ.
DeleteLower low now qualifies as a contracting diagonal. Watch any further length lower to see this wave does not get longer than circle-3.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/OjURsp6C/
Remove the 6,883 wave-counting-stop, as it has served its purpose and is meaningless now.
TJ
ES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen. And here is the front running, after an acceptable diagonal lower.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/h6s9Gj5i/
TJ
AB and now C up on the hourly. To 6900 to calm everyone's nerves. If true, it's a bull trap into the close with a daily hanging man on spx.
ReplyDeleteJust watched the video. Great take. The man understands Chaos! Thx for sharing! Enjoy your weekend everyone!
ReplyDeleteHi, Joe, thank you for sharing this video, a question is if the SPX 500 will have a ABC correction as the Vlogger said, what type of ABC do you think it is? looks like not a expanding flat, In EW ' s expanding flat definition, wave B should retraces between 105% – 138% of wave A. but in SPX 500 chart, wave B extend beyond wave A's 1.38( actual wave B was beyond wave A's 1.618 on Oct 29th's top). so there are two option to consider,
ReplyDelete1, the ABC=running flat,
2, not a ABC, wave B is actually was a fifth wave of a subwave.
Thank you very much. Joe.
Robert, please be careful not to read the B wave "guidelines" as "rules". As the expanded flat shows below in 2018 - 2020, the B wave in the Dow futures met a 150% guideline; not a 'rule' of 138%. Most Elliott analysts would consider that as acceptable. See chart below.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/Grpqvyma/
Yet, the side-by-side shows that the ES futures (and SPX cash) being impacted by the Mag-7 stocks which were not in the Dow, went 'well-beyond' the 162% level and yet still made the lower low.
So, again, just don't read 'guidelines' as 'rules'. Most of the 'guidelines' were developed in the Dow, and in the cash markets because the futures markets were not as well developed in the 1950's - 1970's when the rules and guidelines were being developed. And most of them were developed in the Dow because the S&P500 was not an index until about 1955, so the Dow had the longest history from which to take the greatest number of samples.
I do expect an expanded flat, but that if that bombs out, I'd have to say we are in the continuing Minor A wave still. Hope it helps.
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ