SPY cash prices on the 15-minute chart, below, gapped higher (once again) after all the weekend hype including the scary videos. We have written, "if you want a third wave down, even if it's a 'c' wave, you have to be willing to enjoy a second wave up before that." After the gap up, prices traveled sideways - in the process taking more time in the lateral wave than the prior five-waves-down.
Tentative three-touch trend lines can be drawn today but they are just that - tentative. Yes, that could also be a triangle inside that wedge, but it remains to be seen. Usually, if a triangle should not hold up, then its three-wave internal structure allows an expanding diagonal down to form, instead.
It will be interesting to see if a recognizable pattern completes tomorrow. Today should be viewed as an inside day, and a possible consolidation day for a further down move until that is disproved.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Looks like futures strongly hinting the hunt is on...if minuette 3 of minute A we take out Friday's lows on another T.A.T.
ReplyDeleteA B this morning .and now c?
ReplyDeleteIf we overlap yesterday's highs then I think the current subwave must be a C or 3. 🤔
DeleteFYI: Opening gap @6,654.71 closed in SPX Index.
DeleteConsidering the strength of today's rebound in the SPX Index, I would say that it is also possibly a wave 1.
DeleteThis would mean that yesterday's low was an a-b-c corrective bottom, OR, (perhaps less likely) today's low was a truncated wave 5. 🤔
It hasn't closed above the 18ma. Needs to do that, so far no dice. My guess is a big move down from here.
DeleteSeeing this, 3rd wave is in making for the swing from low today.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/zafc8mmm/
Looks like 4th in progress.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/xyO2PFeG/
ii was just a flat, we seem to be forming a triangle now for iv.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/IiSyJt8d/
ES Downward overlap on 6,674. Not fatal, but a warning. TJ.
ReplyDeleteSPY Cash (1 hr) - besides watching the overnight futures, the primary other observation to make is that the EMA-34 is at the same location as the tentative downward three-touch trend line.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/6xJ6cWbv/
Yes, it is possible to count a flat wave. But we'll see if the high holds.
TJ
B or 2 until proven, correct?
DeleteDownward? Not even until there is a lower low, because of the possibility of truncation in cash & less than 90% down in futures. Upward? Wave at the end of day, down, could be 2, b or X. In short, nothing definitive, nothing fatal. TJ.
DeleteAnother Hindenburg omen triggered at the close of US markets. There was also one triggered on 10/10 and 8/11.
ReplyDeleteSimple Fibonacci calculations show retracement confluence of a W-X-Y (double three) correction of the decline to 10 October as 6754 - 6765 in the December '25 S&P 500 E-Mini Futures and 6705 - 6719 in the S&P 500 (cash) Index:
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/W8QnfUFR/
Price has entered the retracement confluence zone mentioned above.
DeleteAnxiously awaiting the next TRUMP tweet. 😹
Price reversed within 2 points of the above mentioned confluence zone and has now overlapped to the downside: and "turning to the right". 😉
DeleteToday it was Scott Bessent at the US Treasury press conference:
Deletehttps://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-equities-surge-after-bessent-greer-suggest-hope-de-escalation-china
Russell did notch a new ATH yesterday.
ReplyDeleteES/SPY (CFD) 2-hr: price approaching upper parallel. Simplest explanations are 1) triangle, 2) second wave as w-x-y.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/NFct6nVc/
TJ
IF the current up wave gets longer in price than the first one, over the parallel, then a third wave can be considered with a flat in the middle. This might explain the SPY truncation. Either way, there are no signal candles downward yet.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/D0eeLX0L/
TJ
ES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen, there is now overlap on L#1 which is a warning. Overlapping L#2 would spell some bigger trouble.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/DSDsYejm/
TJ
Down wave is now longer than prior down wave; 'possible' turn of degree.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/4cnF2o2n/
TJ
Now overlapped L#2; I don't see any good ways for the market to be impulsing higher. Possible triangle down; possible diagonal up.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/wEHDsSVT/
TJ.
ES 4-hr: I think the count is the blue w-x-y, up, shown below. But, included for completeness is the possible diagonal count. I don't like the form of the contracting diagonal, and where the four is located. So, it is just 'on-the-table' for now, and not active.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/5ES3CNtP/
Counting downward as best I can at the moment. And back down to the daily pivot point.
..also, should the downward wave get longer than the blue 'x', we can take the contracting diagonal off the table. TJ.
DeleteThanks for the EW "play-by-play" TJ! 👍
DeleteI was thinking that, but the rsi on the 4hr is still very low. X Z to finish tomorrow?
Delete2 hour SPY with extended hours.- Current decline has stopped at the lower trend line.
ReplyDeleteTriangle?
ReplyDeleteA new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ.