Sunday, October 20, 2024

Time, Time, Time .. See What's Become of Me

With apologies to the Simon & Garfunkel lyric, the monthly SP500 chart below speaks volumes about some monthly Fibonacci time relationships.



Like the rest of technical analysis, time relationships (i.e. natural cycles) don't ever guarantee anything. But they are suggestive that this up run may be getting stretched. Sometimes they work +/- 1 or 2. 

Have an excellent rest of the weekend,
TraderJoe
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15 comments:

  1. sammyOctober 20, 2024 at 11:28 AM

    Great Song....

    See what's become of me
    While I looked around for my possibilities

    https://youtu.be/bnZdlhUDEJo?si=sXIeAMmYPR-Z27iI

    ReplyDelete
  2. 458africanOctober 20, 2024 at 8:33 PM

    The world is heating up, China 5950 to 5975 seems a reasonable topping point.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Elliott_TraderOctober 21, 2024 at 9:28 AM

    ES 30-min: here's a reminder of the intraday wave-counting-screen with updated daily pivots and local fractals. The upward retrace is 78.6%, the downward retrace is 78.6% and into the S1 daily pivot. It 'might' be setting up for a triangle. A triangle would invalidate below the "prior low" shown.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/r5jDyBbZ/

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderOctober 21, 2024 at 10:01 AM

      ES 5-min: current count goes to a 'five-up' in futures, as below.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/U5QWNn5L/

      Cash is substantially different. Opposite of the triangle if this breaks is some kind of 1,2 down (TBD).
      TJ

      Delete
  4. Walter KrajewskiOctober 21, 2024 at 10:40 AM

    /ZB(30 year treasuries) now has (have?) 5 waves down from the top

    ReplyDelete
  5. Elliott_TraderOctober 21, 2024 at 10:50 AM

    SPY (cash) 30-min: up count just busted with a lower daily low in SPY - not futures yet. This suggests equivalent labeling at the moment.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/XrmF25Nd/

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderOctober 21, 2024 at 11:11 AM

      base channel now broken lower ..

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/Pvb2Z777/

      TJ

      Delete
  6. Elliott_TraderOctober 21, 2024 at 11:25 AM

    ES 1-Hr: another correct assessment that the structure on the left was a diagonal, and that has been demonstrated by a lower daily low, so it is a leading diagonal in some manner.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/7sHu4zjk/

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
  7. Elliott_TraderOctober 21, 2024 at 11:30 AM

    ES Daily - on the larger time scale, I would watch the low at 5,850 and to see if the daily slow stochastic becomes unembedded.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/zCIc7sg4/

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
  8. Elliott_TraderOctober 21, 2024 at 11:32 AM

    ES 30-min: first close under the lower band. Odds about 4 - 6% of next close under the band. Not impossible, just lower odds. TJ.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderOctober 21, 2024 at 12:06 PM

      ES 30-min: close inside the band resets the number of consecutive closes. TJ.

      Delete
  9. BBRiderOctober 21, 2024 at 1:25 PM

    Maybe somebody voiced this already but ES contracting diagonal since Oct. 13?

    ReplyDelete
  10. Elliott_TraderOctober 21, 2024 at 3:13 PM

    SPY 5-min: temporarily, I need to see how the wedge resolves. Is it a :5 or a :3? It is very, very ambiguous at the moment.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/8AySQQze/

    TJ

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Elliott_TraderOctober 21, 2024 at 4:02 PM

      There is a higher high. So, the wedge is likely a :5.

      https://www.tradingview.com/x/ypfqnYBo/

      TJ

      Delete
  11. grrOctober 21, 2024 at 7:25 PM

    Are u considering q triangle with previous high being a B of triangle

    ReplyDelete

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