Thursday, October 31, 2024

Lower BB Target Met

Earlier today we wrote that the first target of the lower daily Bollinger Band was met this morning and that there were lower targets, as well. Price did pretty well bust the 78.6% retracement level for a potential triangle, but a triangle can't be ruled out definitively just yet. Price did come quite close to the second target of the 08 Oct lows.


It looks like the EWO/AO is trying to make a fourth wave signature (or worse), lower. This is possible still maybe as a Flat wave (or 'just barely' as a triangle until we can rule it out). The approximate equal odds alternate is that we have topped in the wedge-shaped 5 count shown previously.

The Fibonacci ruler is shown, and anything below the 38.2% retrace also would rule out the triangle. Also, the overlap warning is showing overlap of the first up wave in the sequence. So, exceeding that lower would be highly suspect. Interesting the futures roll-over gap is right at that 50% retrace level, too.

Let's see how the night goes with AMZN and APPL earnings after the bell. 

Have a good start to the evening,

TraderJoe

18 comments:

  1. Updated election shit show count.

    https://imgur.com/VxWvxei

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    Replies
    1. Lol! The behavior of the algos and market movers after declines like this is well-established. I will not be looking for a clean five down. 😊

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    2. DJIA looks like a potential H&S pattern on the daily chart. Measured targets just about September 10 low.

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  2. Reminder: today was the last day of the month and could represent 'window dressing'. Tomorrow is the first day of a new trading month and may see the inflows from the usual sources, TJ.

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    Replies
    1. That typical price action did not hold at the end of September, interestingly enough. The current sideways action ordinarily would be some kind of continuation pattern, coming after the sharp decline, but nothing surprises me any more.

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  3. Nq future 17500 seems like a legitimate target...ofcourse won't be a straight line

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    Replies
    1. Of course not. The waves will be convoluted. Contrarian. Confusing. Complex. I admire those with the discipline and skill to sort out the tangled weave!! 😊

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  4. ES Daily - there is an interesting note regarding time and the EWO/AO on this chart.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/NNiNtEmn/

    TJ

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    Replies
    1. i think its a lower degree 2nd wave, or a much higher degree 4th wave than you are considering.

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    2. I'm confused with your comment. I'm considering as high a 4th degree wave as blue Intermediate (4) in this chart.

      Intermediate (4)

      So, unless you are willing to be more definite, I'm not willing to put more effort into your statement.

      TJ

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    3. https://i.postimg.cc/L8MfQZm0/Screenshot-2024-11-01-144416.png

      2 counts no diagonal.

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  5. On a 4 hour chart I show what looks like a cup and handle pattern on the $VIX cash. Maybe I'm imagining this. Seems weird if it is. The bottom of the wedge is 38,500 on the Dow.

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    Replies
    1. I see that but we also have a triple top now at 23. If they gap above it Monday is going to rocket most likely

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    2. Overhead gaps remain to be filled so upward retrace likely continues on Monday. Enjoy your weekend all! 😊

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  6. ES 30-min: here's that first-of-the-month inflows on the intraday wave-counting-screen with updated daily pivots and local fractals.

    https://www.tradingview.com/x/QTjaOIlv/

    TJ

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  7. A new post is started for the next day.
    TJ

    ReplyDelete