The ES daily futures today had their first close in a while below the 18-day SMA, closing at 5852 vs 5,857. This changes the closing bias to lower. It ups the odds that price is making a triangle, a flat, or something more lower. Note, the daily chart automatically adjusts for the 4 PM settlement, and not the trading close. More on this below the chart.
Meanwhile, the ES 30-min intraday wave-counting-screen analog below shows that price was hugging the lower intraday Bollinger Band in the late afternoon. The result so far being that neither GOOG, MSFT or META earnings really jacked up prices today except for a few hours.
Also notice late in the day price closed the trading session at 5,845, below where the official settle is shown. Price closed at the S1 daily pivot slightly below the lower band, and there was a cross of the 18-period SMA under the 100-period on this time scale.
We suggested one intraday count on cash in the comments for the prior post, and it may be a part analog of what this structure may be morphing in to. More bars are needed to see if a complete structure forms.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
SPY 1-Hr: lower daily low on a large gap down.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/1Bw6acuU/
TJ
The lower low likely validates that the expanding diagonal on the left was, in fact, leading.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/sIaBTN5L/
TJ
ES - Daily, after failing to tag the upper daily BB in recent days, the lower band 'has' now been tagged. So, one target has been reached.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/OCCDeyHq/
Other targets can now be the 78% retrace of the 08 Oct low for a larger triangle or a full retrace of the 08 Oct low.
TJ
ES 4-hr: Price is now below the 78.6% retrace level. This is where the 'premise' of a triangle gets dicey. If it keeps going lower, then a flat for a larger fourth wave becomes the next possibility. But, so is a top, as marked with ~33% odds each.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/66a9MgdM
It's always odds, because the Smart Money is doing everything possible to break the patterns in their favor.
TJ
Monthly SPY candle now red. Only the second since a year ago.
ReplyDeleteSPY 1-hr now down into the prior gap shown.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/gCmiev5O/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ