Wednesday, June 6, 2018

Move Out of Triangle Continues

Market Outlook: Now Getting Higher Volatility  
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed higher
SPX Candle: Higher High, Lower Low, Higher Close -  Trend Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

Prices continued higher today. Even the Dow made a slight new higher high over it's May waves. Therefore, it is now possible to sketch in a tentative Elliott Parallel Trend Channel on the right hand side of the chart.


ES E-Mini S&P500 Index Futures - Daily - Tentative Parallel Drawn In

Now that price has cleared the green up-fractal at 2,742 the swing line is up in virtually all indexes. Therefore, damage is not done to the swing line unless the red down fractal at 2,675 is exceeded lower. That's still almost 70 points of risk if the swing line is used as a risk parameter.

Further signs of strength would be if the median line of the channel is exceeded higher, and, then if the (b) wave is exceeded higher. Price is still over the blue EMA-34, and the Elliott Wave Oscillator is currently green and rising. It is possible the futures have latched on to the upper daily Bollinger Band, and, the daily slow stochastic is now in over-bought territory but needs to be followed daily to see if it embeds or not. Clearly, a pull-back to the rising channel is possible at any time.

Have a good start to your evening,
TraderJoe

7 comments:

  1. What happened to the ending diagonal in NFLX. How can NFLX start wave 4 down if the S&P is starting a wave 3 up?

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    Replies
    1. As of now, a potential diagonal in NFLX remains in tact. NFLX is one stock. The S&P500 is 499 more. Also, keep in mind within the diagonal NFLX is 'currently' seen as in wave (iii) of a diagonal should it prove to be one. That would make them in sequence.

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  2. Does 6-5 not qualify for an outside day up in cash?

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    Replies
    1. No, it would need a lower low (than the low of the day before) and a higher high.

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    2. hmm, That what I see 6-4 2749.16 2740.54 and 6-5 2752.61 2739.51. Data feed could be wrong I guess

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    3. No error. Sorry. I missed the cash part. Yes, you are correct.

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  3. Looks good! Seems like the EDT is finally busted, lets see how high this last wave of the bull market will move. Bear time will come sooner or later, maybe we get a 1987 style october.

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