Here is the daily chart of the ES E-Mini S&P500 Index futures.
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| ES E-Mini S&P500 Index Futures - Daily - Flat in Progress? |
You'll note a couple of things. First, there is downward overlap in the futures. Second, a line drawn from wave (e) to (ii) now has two candles closing below it. That would seem to be in violation of Neely's guideline that no part of wave (iii) should be cut off by that line. Next, wave (ii) as drawn would be remarkably short in time given the number of bars in wave (i). So, the red count a, b, c shows how the flat wave would form. Cash has not overlapped wave (i) yet, but if it does, then wave (ii) may be drawn to the right as shown above. The slow stochastic seems to favor this scenario.
The up & down (red & green) fractal indicators show the fractals of significance.
A similar situation may exist in daily Crude Oil. It would be another flat wave to deepen the correction of wave ii. As a flat, this wave has already met it's 'minimum' target, but it does not look quite finished yet.
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| CL August Futures - Daily - Flat in Progress? |
In this chart, you'll also likely note that wave blue .ii is again a flat wave. It seems like the market is insistent on flats at the moment in order to try to confuse wave counters at every step, to take up more time in the wave sequence, and to cause initial wave targets to be missed. Well, tread carefully. This is one of the reasons the market is in the "summer doldrums" right now.
Have a very good start to your weekend.
TraderJoe
Many Thanks Joe. Amazing revelation.
ReplyDeleteMarket left me scratching my head trying to decipher the apparetly conflictig wave couts.Looks like nothing wil allude you. Thanks forthe lesson. Have a great weeked.
Welcome & you, too.
DeleteJoe, Looks like Gold is due for an a-b-c retrace upwards.
ReplyDeletePlease correct me if I am wrong. Many Thanks.
Tony
A question like that can only be answered in reference to a time frame provided. And none is.
DeleteMy bad.
DeleteAm assuming that Gold has completed an initial 5 down waves from $1369 to $1262.Theerefore a counter tending a-b-c sould ensue from $1262.
Would this be a fair outlook?
Thank You.
I don't know how you are referring to Gold? As the ETF GLD or as the futures? The futures had a most recent top at $1375 in April. Since then, there are seven (7) waves down, not five (5). Therefore an a-b-c would mean the b wave is also forming a flat.
DeleteMany Thanks Your repy clarifies the position as well
ReplyDeleteI was referring to Spot Gold.
The reason you are counting blue .ii as flat and not counting the bar just before it (one with topping tail) as blue .i is because you want to give more bars to corrective wave .ii ?
ReplyDeleteThat, and wave .i would have a very 'three-wave' look to place it where you otherwise suggest. But that doesn't make sense with (to have three waves) with such a large wave .iii following it.
DeleteThanks for the explaination !
DeleteHi Joe,
ReplyDeleteThank you so much!!!
you have a very nice weekend and next week.