Hopping Around like an Easter Bunny

Market Outlook: Now Getting Higher Volatility
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed higher
SPX Candle: Lower High, Higher Low, Higher Close - Inside Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

The Friday post indicated that the market could get scary to downside on Monday. It did. In fact, the Dow Jones Industrial Average eeked out a new lower low over that of February 9th. Neither of the S&P500, the $NYA, the ES futures, the NQ futures or the Russell 2000 Futures did.

Looking at today's daily ES E-Mini S&P500 Index futures, the following may be seen.

ES E-Mini S&P500 Index Futures - 90%

While the Dow actually made a marginal new low, the ES made the 90% level. That is a level at which we always recognize (at least) the phrase, "B wave of a FLAT, or next impulse (lower in this case)."

It becomes less likely that a triangle will form when the 90% level is breached. Just less likely - not impossible. We also see that yesterday's candle made a lower low on a divergence of the daily slow stochastic, and the daily slow stochastic climbed above the 20% level by the futures settlement, today - preventing embedding.

Further, the 18-day SMA crossed below the 100-day SMA in a bearish cross-over. This would not be the first time in a fourth wave the key moving averages crossed over. That happens quite regularly in fourth waves.

However, as long as price is below the 18-day SMA, the bias is down. The bias being down does not mean that price can't rise. It most certainly can if it wants to. The wave count on the down wave from the 13th of March remains quite complex.

The next key observation will be whether prices can make either a higher high day, or a lower low day. Today's inside day has the potential to help turn the daily swing line up, but that has not happened yet, and price would have to get over the the 18-day SMA to make that more meaningful.

Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe