Ground Beef

Market Outlook: Now Getting Higher Volatility
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes closed higher
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close - Trend Candle ?
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

After gapping up on overnight comments from China, the market ground to a cheaper cut of meat today. And while it filled a price gap in the S&P500, and made a higher high than yesterday's gravestone doji candle, it still did not invalidate the potential local hourly triangle, shown again below.

S&P500 Cash Hourly - Potential Smaller Triangle Still Valid

We said the e wave of the triangle could get more complex. If it remains the e wave tomorrow, then it would have been because it counts as this triple zigzag higher. In no case could the e wave break above the c wave and still remain a valid triangle. Rules are rules.

S&P500 Cash Index - 5 Minutes - Triple Zigzag or Contracting Diagonal

So, now we are in the situation where the market has made two completely equivalent and ambiguous patterns using the same exact wave structure. This is precisely why there are alternates in Elliott Wave Trading.

The triple zigzag is a fairly rare form, and so is the contracting diagonal. Here they are. As a diagonal, it would count as w = (i), x = (ii), y = (iii), x = (iv), and z = (v). The only possible clue is that price has not crossed the upper wedge line (as of yet), so it might be less a diagonal and more a triple zigzag.

In any case, very difficult grinding price action to try to count. So again, patience, calm and flexibility remain needed as the wave structure works it's way into something more clear.

Have a very good start to your evening.
TraderJoe