Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes were higher; DJUtil lower
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close - Trend Day
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)
Regardless of the news background today, prices as measured by the S&P500 Index completed, in good form, the potential hourly triangle that we showed yesterday, and then popped up out of the triangle on word the minority leader was meeting with the President regarding the budget. The hourly chart of the S&P500 Index is below.
|S&P500 Cash Index - Hourly - Pop Out of Completed Triangle|
So, the issue is that while a legitimate claim can be made that there is a completed count, we must recognize that is a 'probability' only. Clearly, the first pop out of the triangle could only be the first sub-wave of -v. We must await the possibility of further upward price movement. At this point, wave .5 is not longer than wave .3, so there is still some room.
Further, even though we don't like to take a nice 'picture' like the one above and stomp all over it, we must also allow the possibility that this wave is forming an ending contracting diagonal. That is because it is 'plausible' to count one in the hourly DOW, where it is not possible to count the above triangle in the Dow. If it comes to pass, we will show that count. The fact that we are willing to do this - we hope - shows the commitment made to thinking in 'probabilistic' terms. This should be considered a requirement for success in Elliott Wave work.
For now, have a very good start to your evening.