Geometry Test - Answer

Although one person tried valiantly, and came up pretty darn close to the correct answer, below is the actual answer to the test wave count published over the weekend. The count overall has not changed. My intent was to check your reasoning in an Elliott Wave format. Few people decided to stake a stab at it. I will explain the answer after the chart.

ES E-Mini S&P500 Index - Futures - Correct Test Answer

First, the supposed "Leading Diagonal" wave a was not a leading diagonal at all. That is because it could not be counted as zigzags (the tell is that there was no smaller a-b-c within (i)). Secondly, a real leading diagonal most probably would have had some type of deeper retrace. None seen. So, this suggests that wave iv is actually a "running flat". Now, while a running flat is relatively rare, the very purpose of the running flat was to equalize the net distance traveled between the real wave ii, and wave iv. Notice how the distance from iii to iv's end, is now almost identical to wave ii.

There also was no deep pull-back after wave ii where it was shown. That was the last (e) wave of the triangle shown. This is a common problem wave counters have - deciding where the last wave ended to begin the new count.
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Now, the alternate for this count remains a-b-c equals a larger i, ii, iii upon exit from the triangle. But the 23.6% pullback seems to suggest that is less likely. Still, I want to give a big shout-out to Kaviraj Chopra, in yesterday's comments, who made a real good attempt to answer the challenge question.

Now, the bulls have to answer the question of why, in real time in the live chat room today,, we were able to count "five waves up" which included yet another, but smaller, triangle as follows.

S&P500 Cash Index - Impulse Wave Counted

Notice how within this wave there was another triangle that not only did we call in real time - before price exited it - but how we were able to project an exact price target from the triangle. That target was hit rather exactly.  But, beyond that, in the last five waves up on the chart, (-i to -v) we were also specifically able to outline the alternation within this last wave as a sharp for -ii but a FLAT for -iv. We also noted that wave -iv had a 38% retrace, without overlapping wave -i. Further, so far, wave -v is having a tough time cracking the mid-line of the channel, showing a loss of momentum.

The point is with a pretty clear five-waves up of this type, we should expect at least a three wave down sequence now. Maybe more, but let's see if how this goes.

Yes, patience and flexibility are still required. Have a great start to your evening.
TraderJoe