Risk Increases - 5

Market Outlook: In a fourth wave of Minor 3
Market Indexes: Most major U.S. Equity Indexes were lower, except Utilities
SPX Candle: Lower High, Lower Low, Lower Close : Outside Candle Lower, Bearish Engulfing
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

As we suspected, we are likely now at least in a fourth wave lower, on cash chart of the S&P500 Index (Half-Hourly). The chart is below. You can see the lower trend channel hit, and that the Elliott Wave Oscillator is now correctly positioned for a fourth wave, according to our fully disclosed Eight-Fold Path Methodology.

S&P500 Cash Index - Half Hourly - Lower Trend Channel Hit

Today's candle is an outside reversal day down or a bearish engulfing candle, but it leaves a gap at the top of the market. The market had opened with the futures higher and a small gap up, but early in the session the gap was filled, and followed by a lower low.

For this index, the three a-b-c waves down from the top form a sharp wave which would alternate well with the FLAT, at the bottom - just as we called for. Now it remains to be seen if these waves wish to extend the correction lower in a double zigzag (not necessary), or form a triangle (not necessary, but that might be a signal of 'last wave in this sequence dead ahead'), or immediately go up to make the fifth wave. 

That last option might spell that the market is 'tired' after have made the extended fifth wave within the third wave. So we'll see. In any event, risk of wave counting errors and gap fills - lower - is very high here and increasing every day.

While today was an outside reversal day in the S&P, and ES, it was not a 'key reversal' day because an all-time high high was not made today. It would be 'preferred' to see one of those before calling a daily top in this wave - but, it certainly is not required.

The NQ futures (and NDX) which had been higher early in the day reversed to lower, too. As of this morning, on a broad daily chart of the NQ, this is the first time we 'could' count the NQ as a completed upward sequence. But, because we were judging only by the daily chart - we will allow that there could be one more new high - but there doesn't have to be. 

P.S. Sorry to have to show you the charts with the blue "N"'s on it, but I don't have access to my workstation at the moment. The situation should be back to normal tomorrow.

Have a very good start to your evening.
TraderJoe