Market Indexes: Mixed; Dow & S&P500 Index Higher; $RUT & $TRAN lower.
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close; trend candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)
With today's new all-time high in the S&P500 Index, the center wave is now "too long" for the third wave of a contracting diagonal. Remember, in a contracting diagonal, wave ((iii)) is required, by rule, to be shorter than wave ((i)).
That means, the first diagonal we counted was likely only the "A" wave of a such a larger diagonal as may be counted below.
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| S&P500 Cash Index - Half Hourly Chart - Diagonal (a) within ((i)) |
Today's higher high is part or all of ((iii)). We have no information that such a wave has stopped it's upward progress just yet.
This count is so internally difficult that if the entire thing falls apart before a diagonal is completed in a satisfactory way, then that would suggest only a B wave is completing - as an alternate. But, the reason that it is the alternate is there would not be a good pattern of alternation.
Volume on the ES E-Mini Futures wave even lighter today at only 728K contracts - even lighter than yesterday! That again makes it the lightest-volume non-holiday trading day I am aware of this year. However, the elongation of the potential diagonal also extends the time when the correction of the potential diagonal must occur by. Because such a diagonal is not complete yet, we can not state the "must correct-by date" with certainty yet.
The Dow Transports had a lower low day today, and continued to follow-through to the down side.
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| DJTA - Partial Day Chart - Lower Low Day |
The Russell 2000 Futures, lost their embedded slow stochastic today, and actually traded down to the 18-day SMA.
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| Russell 2000 Futures - Partial Day |
When the Russell started to bounce off the 18-day, the S&P500 made it's new high today.
Have a good evening.
TraderJoe
This is some of the most messed up market action I've ever seen. No volume. No volatility. Compare the last 9 days in SPX to SPXEX to OEX to W5000 to NYA...and forget about the DOW, as it's in its own world entirely. At one point this morning, the DOW was up 40 points, but only 3 DOW stocks were up on the day. Then SPX, DOW, and OEX close at ATHs, but there were 446 net decliners which took the McClellan oscillator well below the zero line.
ReplyDeleteYes. I did notice the divergence with the McClellan Oscillator. but price is what matters.
DeleteBack in the 70's and 80's there was a market forecaster named Joseph Granville who I believe developed the concept of on balance volume. One of the phrases he coined was called "The Solitary Walk of the Dow" It was his belief that at the end of bull markets money would flow out of lower quality stocks and into the high quality blue chip stocks of the Dow 30 causing that index to outperform the other indexes. While we are not yet at the end of the bull, I don't see why this concept can't be applied at the end of major internal legs as well. Just a thought that was retrieved from the dusty archives of my mind.
ReplyDeleteToday's action in the DJIA reminds me of Oil as it hurtled towards 150+. The chart certainly looks parabolic.
ReplyDeleteNow.... Oil retraced over 70% (from memory) of that rise. Wonder what happens here. Very 'interesting times'.