Market Indexes: S&P500 and NQ Futures made new all-time highs; Dow not.
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close - Trend Candle
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)
Every major stock index made new highs today powered by the preliminary U.S. GDP report, and by the earnings reports of selective technology stocks, including Amazon, Alphabet (Google), and Microsoft. Facebook has yet to report. As you know from the this blog, I employed specific price and time tests to see if a confirmation would occur that we were out of Minor 3 and definitely into Minor 4. Those price and time tests were not met, and the subsequent non-confirmation led to a rally. Now what?
Here's what. I want to play Glen Neely's simple game again. Let's start with an almost blank chart of the S&P500, below. This one is a two-day chart for clarity, but the time frame is irrelevant.
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| S&P500 2-Day Chart from the Election Low |
So now let's play Neely's simple game. Where is a point on the chart in which a second wave would not cut off any part of a third wave?
This first location won't do it.
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| SP500 2-Day Chart : First location for a second wave won't work. |
This second location won't quite do it either.
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| S&P500 2-Day Chart : Second Location for a Second Wave Won't Work Either |
Yes, you're getting warmer. That means that only this location works.
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| S&P500 2-Day Chart : Only Location where a Second Wave Works |
This suggests that the best count for this cash wave is as follows. (I switched programs to insure all measurements are correct.)
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| S&P500 Cash Weekly - Minute ((iii)) Count |
If it's good for the first 1,2 up, it's good for the next one too. And minute ((iii)) wave would reflect the count acceleration we are seeing now.
Whenever minute ((iv)) begins, it must be longer in time than minute ((iii)) is in time. All the other corrective waves - as shown - are longer in time that their respective impulse waves.
Have a good start to the weekend!
TraderJoe
Salut joe
ReplyDeleteSi c'est ce scénario qui va arriver pour le graphique alors on est encore loin de la phase IV de la 5
On va faire maintenant la iv de la 3 puis la v de la 3
Elle dure combien de semaine la baisse de la iv?
Est ce que tu crois que la fin du marché haussier arrivera avant fin 2018?
DeleteMERCI JOE ET BON WEEK-END
((iv)) likely longer in time than ((iii))
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ReplyDeleteThanks Joe. Friday was a bizarre day. NAZ/NDX up almost 3%, yet the McClellan Osc is still buried well below zero. More decliners than advancers throughout the morning until midday. Dow couldn't get out of its own way. NYA and SPXEW (equal weight SPX) down most of the day/closed just above unchanged. I've mention many times how I verify the SPX count with other indexes, and I've never seen SPX and SPXEW have different counts. So, if they're going to remain the same, then the rally from Wednesday's low only has 3 waves(a=c)and looks like a B wave at this time. If Friday's weirdness was caused by rotation, then I guess pretty soon there will only be 5 stocks that anyone owns.
ReplyDeleteWelcome. Since the NQ's made a new high again on Monday morning (without the S&P500), and with us agreeing on only "three-waves up" to Friday's close, then we must also allow the possibility that the minute ((iii)) wave is ending with a small diagonal. Doesn't 'have' to be a B wave yet. It could be, as part of a triangle.
DeleteSince when is QQQ the same as the DOW?
ReplyDelete