New ATH

Market Outlook: Down trend continuing, probably Minuet iv of Minor 3
Market Indexes: Major U.S. equity indexes higher, S&P500 new ATH
SPX Candle: Higher High, Higher Low, Higher Close; Spinning Top
FED Posture: Quantitative Tightening (QT)

How can someone conclude that a new all-time high means that a down trend is likely continuing? It's because I think with today's tax announcement, which made new highs on some indexes, but not others, is still part of a fourth wave.  As a result of the new high, I did switch to my alternate count, shown previously in the live chat room. I present that count on the daily chart below.

SP500 Daily in Minuet iv

The minuet wave iv is an expanding triangle at the present time. I do not see it as an ending diagonal at present. There should be an opportunity for the (e) wave and wave iv to cross under the EMA-34 seen on the chart above.

The simple reason for the adoption of this count is that I can not count the internals of the recent waves, including the new high on the fifteen-minute chart, as being in anything other than an expanded triangle with the waves we currently have. Here are those internal waves.

S&P500 Cash - 15 Minute Chart - Internal Waves

It would be best if the current upward wave had a slight new high or a slight truncation tomorrow in order to complete a clean five-wave sequence to c of (d) of the expanding triangle. However, it is very clear to me that the waves from 20 Sep to 22 Sep have that running triangle in the middle of them which stopped all downward movement. That requires that the count of these waves to fully consider that triangle - which this count does.

Further, you will note that blue .c wave is under the low of the blue .a wave today! That also requires that these waves be considered as part of a FLAT wave. I do think the higher high today, and the two new highs in the Dow Transportation Index once again puts the Elliott Wave International style count in significant jeopardy.

Of importance, with today's new high there are again no gaps above the market. All the gaps are below the market - for month & months & months.

Well, that's it for tonight. People are 'piling' into the Russell. That's probably not going to turn out pretty. I remain flexible and patient. I hope you do too.


Have a good start to the evening.
TraderJoe