Inside Day

Market Outlook: End of Minor 5 (60%), Still in Minor 3 (40%)
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes were lower
Today's Candle: Inside Day, Lower
FED Environment: Quantitative Tightening

With today's inside day, the S&P500 Index still best counts as a potential triangle. It may break down to a FLAT, as an alternate, but that is not certain, yet. I will show the last SP500 15-minute chart for this wave at the end of the posting. Instead, I said yesterday that I wanted to have a look at the Dow Jones Industrial Average. So I did that this morning in the live chat room, and I want to show you the first chart posted.

DJIA Cash 15-Minute Chart : Potential Expanding Triangle

So, it appeared to me that we were having a contracting triangle in the S&P500, or possibly a FLAT wave there, while we are having the potential expanding triangle in the DJIA. Here's how the chart of the Dow developed as of the end of the day.

DJIA Cash 15-Minute Chart: Development as of the Close

The first three waves down were the first three waves down of a very grinding Leading Diagonal a wave down. And, from there, in a perfectly timed call, the b wave up, or part of a b wave up began.

So, with five-waves down from the (d) wave high, confidence in expanding triangle went up to about 80%. So, how would this expanding triangle fit into the overall hourly wave count on the DOW? To help answer that question, we generated this hourly chart of the DOW early in the day.

DJIA Cash - Hourly Potential Channel

So, that if an expanding triangle, and it's (e) wave can attack the lower channel boundary, then a last wave up may follow the lower channel boundary attack.

Now, Neely indicates that a fifth wave following a limiting expanding triangle does not have to make a new all-time high. That would be a fooler, wouldn't it?

We are still labeling the overall up move as (w), (x), (y), (x), and (z), the triple zigzag B wave OR as the same expanding ending diagonal. So, in short, nothing has changed. Here is the S&P500 Index cash chart on the 15-minute time frame, as we promised, above.

S&P500 Cash 15-Minute Chart : Potential Triangle or FLAT

For the triangle, an (e) wave should cross under 2098.50, or so, but stay above the (c) wave. For the FLAT wave, it would be acceptable to trade under the (c) wave.

Other than noting that gap above the market at the (d) wave, we'd like to wish you all a good start to your evening. (The Dow does not currently have such a gap).

Best regards,
TraderJoe