Dow - One Million!

This is no joke. In today's issue of Barron's Magazine, famed investor Warren Buffet began talking about Dow 1,000,000. Granted he is referring to one-hundred year's hence in 2117. This is happening, of course, as our weekly bullish sentiment indicator is stuck at the level of 60.4 - a second week in a row over that level. While, we offer no opinion on Buffet's price level, it sure seems a bit frivolous to me to try to be making a prediction one-hundred years in the future. A lot of things could happen between now and then.

For our part, we would rather address serious Elliott Wave counters, and ask from the chart below, "why is it that an expanding triangle can be counted perfectly at this level?" You've seen part of the chart in several near-real time posts before. Here is the rest of the chart.

DJIA Cash - 15 Minutes - Expanding Triangle

Why is it that this pattern was able to be counted out for you in such detail, including the complex double-zigzag of the triangle, before the rebound began, and importantly, the predicted 'throw-under' of the (a) to (c) trend line, just as we said Neely penned was most usual?

Why did this all occur - and with you having notice on this web-site in advance of the last moves? Is the market trying to tell us - just as many web-sites and pundits are still projecting much higher highs - that the last high in five-waves may be dead ahead (even if it fails)?

The answer is that I don't know for sure. I do know that expanding triangles are exceptionally rare birds. So few of them have been seen that there are very few samples to study to have high reliability in their predictions when they occur at the end of impulses versus the end of corrective waves.

So, while we are grateful to have discovered this pattern and counted it out, this will certainly be a moment for me to learn and to be flexible as to result. As we have showed before, there is one way to count the entire bull market as complete with this next move up. There are other ways for it to continue, but we will be in better position to judge over the next several days. The one thing that is usually true is that a triangle usually precedes the last wave up in a sequence.

We will also point your attention at this time to the 4-hour cash chart of the NDX, and this potential wedge count - which could easily turn into a diagonal.

NDX Cash - 4 Hr Chart - Potential Wedge

We do not necessarily go around looking for wedges, diagonals, and/or triangles. But sometimes we need to find them because that's what the market is actually doing, instead of using arbitrary or pre-ordained methods of wave counting - especially when the Elliott Wave Oscillator shows a declining level of momentum on each peak. You will note that with a tighter wedge line, there is a way to count the pattern as over. But, we will give this one some time, yet, and see if it wishes to make that classic 'throw-over' of the upper trend line.

So, again, either way, patience and flexibility are the key.

Have a very good rest of the weekend.
TraderJoe