Two Gaps Open, Two Closed

Market Outlook: 98% Probability that Minor 3 has topped
Market Indexes: Marginally higher

Because the futures were higher overnight, the cash S&P, which had closed at 2465 gapped up at the open to 2468, and traded as high as 2475. This closed  the gap from Aug 10, but just missed closing the gap from Aug 9th.

The FED minutes were released but prices had already begun selling off on the news that corporate CEO's were abandoning the President's Business Round Table. The President then shut it down. Prices traded lower on the hourly divergence with oscillator shown to fill the opening gap and down to 2464, before drifting higher again into the close, closing at 2468. As the chart below shows, prices traded on either side of the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level, and closed below it, forming a doji candle at that level on the daily chart.

In doing so, that now leaves two open gaps on the chart in this immediate vicinity (shown in red).

SP500 Hourly - Doji Day

The advance decline line was slightly higher today, although new 52-week lows exceeded new highs but still on very light volume. We will additionally note that the $VIX has now put it's moving averages into bullish alignment again, with the 10-day higher than the 20-day, and both of those higher than the 50-day.

There isn't much else to say about today, except that we can see scenarios that point lower, and one that might point to the 78.6% retracement level (hint: we have sketched it in with dotted lines) or higher.

All-in-all, the market must now provide enough length to a wave to allow more accurate assessment. We remain patient in the summer doldrums. We hope you do too.

Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe