Three Open Gaps

Market Outlook: 98% Probability that Minor 3 has topped
Market Indexes: DJIA up; SP500, NAS, RUT lower

Below is a chart of the S&P500 Index hourly, It is one I have shown before, but updated as much as possible through today's movements.

SP500 Cash Hourly - 61.8%

The thing that will stand out to most people is that three different times the cash market tried to assault the 61.8% Fibonacci level, and, as of yet, hasn't quite done it. From the standpoint of a downward count, if the 61.8% level is not exceeded higher, then I'd conclude the Aug 11 low is minute (i) of A, lower, and the rise over the last two days is minute (ii). So, it's worth watching the overnight to some extent tonight to see how it goes.

Other than being outside of the up channel - alone just a warning signal - there is nothing critical on the chart in the downward direction yet. The 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level has not been exceeded lower, and so we can't rule out another fourth wave of an upward count just yet. Still it is possible to count only three waves upward as a, b, c of a minute (ii) wave, with only a very tiny truncation in the fifth wave of c.

If prices were to head higher - say to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement level above - then it would be possible to count the Aug 11 low as A of the decline, and we would now be in the B wave up. Either way, nothing says the downward movement is over.

It is interesting that there are three open gaps on the hourly chart. Further, today declines outnumbered advancing issues again, new 52 week lows outnumbered highs again, down volume exceeded up volume again, and the day both opened and closed with hourly outside reversal candles, lower. So the price action is interesting, but not conclusive yet.

Well, that's it for today. Have a good start to your evening.
TraderJoe