Grinderoni

Market Outlook: Now in Minor 4
Market Indexes: Major U.S. Equity Indexes were Higher Today

After indicating, after the eclipse yesterday, that prices could head higher in a retracement and find some resistance at the exponential moving averages shown, I'm pretty sure based on feedback today that many people might be confused, as might I be. If I am, so be it. It happens now and then - especially after the only total solar eclipse to cross the U.S. from coast-to-coast in 99 years.

Yet, that is what happened. Prices reacted to yesterday's hammer candle, and gapped up forming one more long candle higher on the  chart. Here is that daily chart. You tell me where price stopped today.

SP500 Daily - Price Retrace to the MA Resistance

And, even though this call was made, I am already hearing people say "I'm confused. This makes no sense". Well, welcome to fourth waves. This is why I coined the term The Fourth Wave Conundrum. Fourth waves are just plain tricky and confusing. They may out-trick you. And they may very well out-trick me. They certainly have before.

But, what if we assume that since it was a grinding market on the way up, then it might be a grinding market on the way down? Certainly, looking at the S&P500 30-minute chart below, it already has 135 candles, and it is already not following The Eight Fold Path Method.

SP500 30-Minute Chart : Just A Grinder?

That suggests this count of minute ((a)), down as circle-a, and minute ((b)), up, as circle-b. The form of minute ((b)), up, would be that of a "running triangle" with the minuet (c) wave up made today, or possibly continuing into tomorrow. Notice, that the Elliott Wave Oscillator (EWO) does not have a divergence at this time.

Downward running triangles are a bearish structures in the short run. And, the purpose of this one could be to keep everyone guessing as to when that longer minute ((c)) wave would start lower. Remember, the pros do not want anyone on board when they do that. They want all the profits for themselves. So, they have to try to throw out a confusing structure to the many.

The only reason I propose this structure is that the waves so far neither fit The Eight Fold Path Method, nor do they fit the structures of either contracting or expanding diagonals.

This running triangle right now, would work for sure on the DJIA, and on the the S&P, as above. It might also work on the NQ futures. For now, we need to see if the upward wave stops at either 61.8% or 78.6% of the downward wave.

That is enough to do for tomorrow. So have a nice start to your evening.
TraderJoe