Like an 'eighties John Travolta movie with Bee Gee's soundtrack if this market decides it is Staying Alive then this would be the best alternate I can offer on the ES daily timeframe. The market has been very hesitant and whippy in its declines. There is some possibility it is a fourth wave.
The down wave is the longest decline on the chart in the up series from April already, so the degree may have turned. But it has not yet overlapped - a key sign of a loss of momentum. The down wave might continue to the 18-day SMA (see prior posts) or it may go much farther than that.
The MACD has only just curled over from its high peak reading. Yet, the wave is currently in a parallel that we will acknowledge until/unless broken lower.
And wild cards are 1) the FED meeting minutes tomorrow, 2) NVidia earnings after the close, and 3) the geopolitical news background.
Again, nothing lower will surprise me but did I want to cover my commitment to review reasonable alternates to the wave count. And, if the third minute wave is shorter than the first minute wave, then the fifth minute wave should be shorter than the third if it occurs.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
Hard to not consider this move down as corrective. A glance at daily charts still suggests a "price consolidation" pattern imo. Considering what the insane war-mongering Russo-phobic Europeans are doing via the Baltic States, how ironic would it be to witness ATHs in markets at the outset of global war. They are clearly trying to trigger a NATO Article 5 incident by involving themselves in a direct and open attack on the Russian homeland...pure insanity...!
ReplyDeleteOil looks like it wants to get over b-d line.
ReplyDeleteOnly a matter of time. USO down 3.7% in pre-market. Truly remarkable. Maybe another Trump tweet....
DeleteI think 2 nights ago i saw a triagle forming over night in futures..its a.not very good triangle but so far the low after the triangle is holding up..the move since the has been choppy
ReplyDeleteLol! Talking heads attributing anticipated upward break
ReplyDeletefrom consolidation pattern to another vacuous Trump pronouncement. To what, I do wonder, will they attribute the end of the 5th wave?
I'm sure Trump's voice in your head will let you know.
DeleteWhen Bitcoin tops in wave 2 of C down then this market will finally top.
ReplyDeleteI think there are increasing signs that we are putting in a top at very high degree. We're on the verge of not one, but two historic IPOs. Probably lots of talking heads will look back and opine that "no one saw it coming...". Lol!
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen; new lower low than overnight low. It sure looks like 'five-down'; could go further. This argues for watching the high, as the five waves 'could' just end an overnight Flat.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/37sMXdi4/
TJ
DJIA is doing its level best that it will not traverse that last 500 points to a new ATH...taking its sweet time...
ReplyDeleteUsing normal visual, it seems like sp trying to form 2nd shoulder of HS
ReplyDeleteIn 5h I see bull flag
ReplyDeleteHard to imagine DOW will fail to notch a new hight after coming this close and meandering sideways for so long. I expect it will be a sharp move up after all this coiling.
ReplyDeleteES 30-min: overnight high exceeded. TJ.
ReplyDeleteOf course!!
DeleteDOW notches new high...
ReplyDeleteNot yet!
DeleteLol! You were looking at the wrong index. When Bloomberg reported it I too thought they were mistaken. 😊
DeleteAre we forming a triangle.for 4th
ReplyDeleteExact 38 correction https://www.tradingview.com/x/jHeH13WP/
DeleteES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: from the intraday wave-counting-screen. So far there is an overnight wedge up (brown lines). Price has been on both sides of the intraday 18-per SMA, but is currently up in over-bought territory - as is the daily slow stochastic.
ReplyDeleteIntraday, the bias is currently up but watch to see if it 'flips'. We last took out an up fractal, watch to see if that becomes a 'trap' fractal. So far, we 'may' be making a set-up candle but there is no confirmation yet.
https://www.tradingview.com/x/ZBHSVrXW/
ES price ran up to the 78.6% Fibonacci level + a tad from the 4-hr down move.
TJ
Outside candle up. Possible setup candle eliminated. Bias still up, still over bought. TJ.
Deletefyi only - UMich Consumer Sentiment drops to 44.1 from 48.5 previously. TJ.
ReplyDeleteES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: opening range breakout is 'lower' and back to 18-per SMA intraday in over-bought territory. TJ.
ReplyDeleteES/SPY (CFD) 30-min: first close below the intraday 18-per SMA, and now a longer wave down than the prior one, after correcting over-bought condition.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/JIH2hOsY/
TJ
A new post is started for the next day.
ReplyDeleteTJ
Market rallied today to finally fill the down gaps in the SPX, SMH, and QQQ. Mission accomplished! Google, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta, and Tesla refuse to make new highs. With the extreme call buying and lack of downside protection, the market rarely allows you to buy cheap protection long term. I don’t see how you can lose betting against the market at these levels over the next year or two.
ReplyDelete