Still No Overlaps

Here is the ES futures 4-hr channel count & the alternate count (in red) to follow The Principle of Equivalence. There are still no good overlaps to play off of. There are, as yet, no sizeable downward waves, and there are not really very good signal bars at the high, yet. The count does its best to follow degree labeling definitions. It may be there was extreme alternation in ii vs iv, with iv being a triangle in wave (a)/(i) instead of a diagonal.

ES Futures - 4 Hr - Price in a Channel

I lean towards the blue count as equality has not necessarily yet been reached in the up wave. Further, the $NYAD (NYSE Advance/Decline Line) made another new high today. That needs to be different if any bear market is to begin. I did not fight that signal in the last wave, and I'm not fighting it now. Price is still in a channel, so the up wave looks corrective at this time. That could change, but it hasn't yet.

While the bull/bear survey sentiment data has not gone wildly higher, the Equity Put-Call Options ($CPCE) indicator dropped to 0.41, the lowest for the year and tying the lowest for several years. The five-day moving average is also at a new low for the year. So, this indicator is definitely in the Speculative Zone as a contrary indicator.

Weekly and daily, the ES has hit the upper Bollinger Bands. This is a place where Ira's trading guidance suggests the Smart Money may take at least some profits off the table. So, some stiff pull-backs might be expected soon. Further, the news background remains volatile until more information is obtained. The presence of an inordinate number of gaps in this wave up on the cash charts also give rise to caution and the need for patience and flexibility.

Have an excellent rest of the weekend,

TraderJoe