There is nothing yet proven in the wave count. Today, the SPY cash index made a slight new daily lower low while the ES did not (yet). So, the main count is shown below on the SPY daily chart.
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| SPY Cash - Daily - Potential Diagonal |
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| SPY Cash - Daily - Alternate |
Diagonals (or potential diagonals, better said) are always tricky. We will note, though, that the MACD is diverging and that is one sign to pay attention to. We want to give the potential diagonal all the time it wants, but we have certain limits. If the wave-counting stop is exceeded lower, that would be a serious wake-up call. The wave-counting stop is the same in both counts. Given the bizarre differences between cash and futures, we think, if today's low holds, then it would best count as a b wave.
There are currently no cash gaps above the market, but there are numerous ones below the market.
Have an excellent rest of the evening,
TraderJoe
Long candlestick tails typically indicate big money flowing into the market and a bullish sign. But...NQ looks to me like nested 1,2s down...VERY bearish...
ReplyDeleteBtw, if the second chart is correct, the inability to muster a typical over-throw of the upper trend-line of the potential ED, long tail notwithstanding, may be telling.
ReplyDeleteES Daily - new lower low day. TJ.
ReplyDelete...and there has now been a lower low than the outside reversal day up within the next two trading sessions, 'possibly' setting a trap for the bulls.
Deletehttps://www.tradingview.com/x/YWiTR3T5/
TJ