On the SPY Cash 4-hr chart below, it is possible that the last wave up is a truncation. That is because it 1) counts better as an upward wave, 2) it is still inside the lower trend line, and 3) it did retrace over 78% of the prior up wave. Today's wave is the one that broke the more pertinent three-touch trend line.
As you probably know, today's up movement after the open did not close the gap shown by the blue bar. So that down gap is open as is its companion up gap after the first of the year. So, too, is the gap after 17 Dec still open, and many others.
As far as a downward count, I'm just counting as a tentative a/i for the moment until there is a meaningful upward retrace, a potential lower low, and/or a more definitive channel to work with.
Have an excellent start to the evening,
TraderJoe
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