Spinning Top Candle - Of Course, Requires Confirmation

U.S. equity prices early on as measured by the ES daily futures made a higher high day and then faded somewhat by the close. We are showing the OHLC version of the chart below, but the bar translates into a weak spinning-top candle formation as the body would still be green.

The swing-line indicator indicates there is a higher high after a lower low above the 18-day SMA and the daily slow stochastic obtained embedded status for a second day. So, the bias is up until prices again close below the 'line-in-the-sand'.

Today's higher high exceeded the second up (green) fractal back from 12 Nov. And although we have shown a way to count a completed wave, candle confirmation is needed in the form of a substantial closing-lower candle. Absent that, there is not much on the chart yet.

The wave action is whippy intraday (as shown by today's 30-min candles) and this is interesting given a $VIX which is down in the 15 - 16 level. We should note today that the $VIX closed a cash gap from way back on 26 SEP 2025. Interesting, but nothing dispositive yet.

There are lots of ways to see that a minimum of a pullback is due, even just considering the waves since the late November low. And, although nothing to the downside will surprise us, we must be patient until the market decides the time is right. As we all know, next week is an FOMC meeting week. Perhaps the market will decide that time is the right time.

Have an excellent start to the weekend.

TraderJoe