Bias Flip

After contacting the lower daily Bollinger Band and making a new lower low - without having the slow stochastic embed - prices headed higher as might be expected from a retracing wave. In the process, price today closed above the 18-day SMA again, and the swing line has turned to up. So, there is now a lower low and a higher high with a close over 'the line in the sand'.

The retrace, so far is 62%, The prior green (up) fractal has been exceeded higher, but there is nothing to say that upward price movement has ended. The daily slow stochastic is headed higher and is not over-bought yet. 

The best suggestion is to follow the local intraday technical analysis and be cautious in the very high volatility waves, using small positions. Of course, another option is to sit on the sidelines for the holidays.

There are several ways to interpret the current wave count, but they depend on whether or not a new all- time high is made. For example, one could place Minor B at the low, or (c) of minute ((iv)) of the Minor A wave still. But another way to interpret the low is a lower degree ((w)) wave, with a new minor ((x)) wave high possible in a larger compound flat, still for the Minor B wave. It's a truly messy wave situation. There may be other answers to the puzzle, as well. And it's another good reason to just use the local technicals until the situation clears up a bit.

Have a good rest of the evening,

TraderJoe